Microsoft reportedly left an AI site the grid may not power until the 2030s. Debt on an Oracle campus traded near 80 cents. EQT agreed to buy Cleanaway at about 20 times operating profit. Kalshi and Polymarket split on Brazil's debate.
Stock futures rose early Monday after the Nasdaq's worst week since June.
S&P 500 futures rose about 0.6%, and Nasdaq-100 futures gained more than 1%. The Philadelphia chip index fell 11.4% last week, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell 15 basis points to 5.09%. The 10-year eased to about 5.06% early Monday. Brent fell more than 1% to below $109, gold held near $4,190, and bitcoin traded near $82,300.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) said Monday it is bringing JPM Coin, its dollar deposit token, to Ethereum for institutional clients. Unlike a stablecoin, the token is a claim on a bank deposit, and its balances on public networks are undisclosed.
Futures bounced.
The bill for AI is still open.
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The AI trade's bounce met two AI projects that are still waiting on power.
Microsoft (MSFT) ended its agreement for a planned Nscale data center in Loughton, England, The Telegraph reported. Grid officials told Nscale, a British AI cloud provider, not to expect power there until the 2030s. Microsoft is one of Nscale's two largest customers, and Nscale filed for a U.S. listing last month. Nscale said its other contracts are unaffected. Microsoft declined to comment.
Oracle (ORCL) leases Project Jupiter, an AI campus in New Mexico. Some of its roughly $18 billion of bank debt recently traded near 80 cents on the dollar, The New York Times reported. The Financial Times put it at 89 to 91 cents in September. The buildings are nearly finished but have no power, and a permit hearing has slipped to Dec. 7.
Power Sets the Pace
Neither company has said it wants less AI capacity. Both sites are waiting on power. A tenant's contract supports a loan only if the building can run when rent is due. Jupiter's debt near 80 cents puts a price on that delay. If an amended Nscale prospectus shows a smaller contracted pipeline, the power risk reaches a public listing.
Private capital agreed to pay up for steady cash, and a regulator looked at how private credit borrows.
EQT's infrastructure fund signed a binding deal to buy Cleanaway, an Australian waste company. The deal values it at about A$9.3 billion including debt. The cash price is A$3.095 a share. Counting a dividend already paid, holders get A$3.13, which is 32.1% above the undisturbed price in August. On a simple estimate, that is about 20 times Cleanaway's annual operating profit. About A$5.6 billion of debt from roughly 20 lenders is lined up, The Australian Financial Review reported. Cleanaway shares jumped 20.2% to A$2.97, about 4% below the cash price.
Britain's bank supervisor is reviewing an insider complaint at Barclays, the Financial Times reported. The complaint says traders understated the risk of derivatives the bank used to finance private credit loans. The claims are unproven, and Barclays said it does not comment on contacts with regulators. Its shares fell about 3% in London.
Steady Cash, Scrutinized Leverage
Cleanaway earns steady cash from long contracts and landfills, and lenders still lined up to fund it. The Barclays case concerns a different channel, where funds borrow from banks to lend more. If supervisors find banks understated that risk, capital charges could rise. That would make leverage cost more for private credit. The complaint is unproven, so the next sign is whether scrutiny reaches other banks.
There's a HUGE Downside to This Bull Market (And It's Not a Crash)
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The weekend's threats met their first price test, and two markets answered differently.
Brent fell from Friday's $109.86 settlement, its highest close since May. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Gulf oil flows are back to about 80% of their prewar level. His department has not published that figure. Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed Monday that another tanker hit a mine, its third such claim since Friday. The British maritime agency that logs ship attacks had no matching entry.
France's 10-year bond yield rose about 7 basis points to near 4.85% after a weekend of violent unrest. The euro slipped, and the CAC 40 fell more than 1%, more than twice the DAX's drop. Nearly 2,400 people were arrested Saturday, the interior ministry said. The National Assembly votes Tuesday on the revenue section of the 2027 budget, and Moody's reviews France on Friday.
Threats Versus Budgets
Oil fell on its first trade after the threats, with no single cause. French bonds sold on their first trade after the riots. France's risk runs through a budget that its minority government must pass. The mine claims have not yet appeared in independent shipping logs. A confirmed strike would test oil's calm, and a failed vote Tuesday would test France's bonds.
Brazil's first runoff debate had no clear winner, and the two venues pricing the race moved apart.
Kalshi's contract on a Flávio Bolsonaro win traded as high as 81 cents around the Sunday-night broadcast, while Polymarket's drifted lower. By about 6:45 a.m., Kalshi last traded at 80 cents and Polymarket near 77 cents. Flávio led in 11 of 13 recent polls, most within the margin of error.
Two venues sued Missouri's attorney general on Oct. 16 to block action against their sports contracts. Crypto.com's derivatives exchange and Novig filed as 30-day deadlines in state letters ran out. Kalshi and Polymarket have not sued, court records reviewed by The Block show.
Two Venues, Two Fights
Both venues still price Flávio as a clear favorite, near four in five. Kalshi's rise came in large buys during the broadcast, and Polymarket's slide began before it. Neither price is evidence of the outcome. In Missouri, the largest venues have stayed out of court while Kalshi's appeal against Iowa officials sits with the circuit that covers Missouri. A ruling there would bind federal courts in the state.
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Monday opens with the AI trade bouncing and its financing still in question.
Microsoft reportedly left a British site awaiting grid power, and debt on an Oracle campus traded near 80 cents. EQT agreed to pay a full price for steady cash. Oil fell after a weekend of threats, while French bonds sold on riots. The 9:30 a.m. open is the first test of the bounce.
Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.
Rates Just Reset. Who Feels It First?
On January 2, the 10-year Treasury yielded 4.19%. By September 30, it was 5.29%. Most of that move landed in a single quarter.
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Rates Just Reset. Who Feels It First?
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