Prediction Markets
Editorial articles and market analysis covering Prediction Markets on FinancialMarkets.com.
Latest articles
- The Pentagon Barred Its Personnel From Betting on Military Operations With Inside Information
- A Tied Datafolha Poll, and Traders Still Give Flávio Bolsonaro About Three-in-Four Odds
- Polymarket's Oct. 22 Iran Ceasefire Contract Passed Its Deadline Without Settling. Its Status Shows a Dispute
- The Iran Ceasefire Ladder Fell as the First Sirik Reports Appeared. A Day Later, It Had Recovered About Half
- Traders Halved the Odds of an October Fed Hike in One Session. No Fed Official Said a Word
- Tesla Would Not Discuss a SpaceX Merger. The 2027 Contract Ended Higher on the Day, but Fell After the Call
- Kyiv Says Early November. Moscow Says Around Nov. 10. Traders Priced the Gap
- Explosions Near Hormuz Knocked Up to 21.5 Points Off Iran Ceasefire Contracts. Who Caused Them Decides How the Contracts Settle
- Iran Threatened Undersea Cables and Called for Lifting the Blockade. The Blockade Contracts Barely Moved, and the Late-Year Slice Slipped
- About 160,000 Kalshi Fed Hike Contracts Were Bought in 35 Minutes. The Buying Cost Roughly $19,000
- Kremlin Says Talks Could Resume in Mid-November. Polymarket's October Contract Fell Sharply and the November Contract Roughly Doubled
- Brazil's Election Market Crossed 80% for Flávio Bolsonaro on Tuesday Evening, Hours After the Latest Poll. Most Surveys Show Him Narrowly Ahead
- Utah's Gambling Case Against Kalshi Also Targets Two Susquehanna Entities. Liquidity Providers Now Carry State Legal Risk
- The October Iran Blockade Contract Gave Back All of Tuesday's Gain. The December Contract Gave Back About Two-Thirds
- Merger Bets Jumped After Musk's Remarks. By Morning, Both Contracts Were Within About 2 Points of Where They Started
- Kalshi Traders Price a 13% Chance of an October Fed Hike. That Is About Twice the Share of Economists Who Do Not Expect a Hold
- A Polymarket Contract Gives a U.S.-Iran Hormuz Deal About a 9% Chance by Friday. The Proposal Reported Tuesday Would Not Settle It
- Most of the Year-End Iran Blockade Contract's Gain Came Before the Peace-Plan Report. The Headline Itself Moved the October Bet, and Only Briefly
- Alberta Voted About 76% to Stay in Canada. The Prediction Market's Leading Margin Bucket Pointed the Right Way, Pending Certification
- Flávio Bolsonaro's Runoff Odds Halved in a Week, Then Stopped Moving. Brazil's Currency Hedgers Are Paying the Most Since 2011
- Iran Blockade Bets Now Put Most of Their Weight on November and December. The October Contract Is Back Under 10 Cents
- The CFTC Is Defending Kalshi's Live Bitcoin Perpetual Against CME. Ohio Is Getting Ready to Sue
- Egypt's Vote on Defending Saudi Arabia Has Slipped to Oct. 26. The U.S.-Houthi Ceasefire Contract Rose Anyway
- Two Brazil Polls Show a Tie and Two Show Flávio Clear of the Margin. Polymarket Slid Anyway, While Kalshi Held
- A Contract That Pays Only on a U.S. Announcement Nearly Doubled Before 9 a.m. Oil Edged Lower Over the Same Hours
- Egypt Put Off Its Vote on Defending Saudi Arabia. The U.S.-Houthi Ceasefire Contract Dipped, Then Recovered
- Two Prediction-Market Venues Sued Missouri. Kalshi and Polymarket Did Not
- Brazil's Debate Ended Without a Winner. Its Two Prediction Markets Moved in Opposite Directions
- Underdog Is Suing Tennessee, Its Seventh State, Over an Argument an Appeals Court Rejected in September
- Two Kalshi Trades Committed About $88,000 Against an October Fed Hike. The Price Ended Where It Began