Intel fell about 31% after blaming memory costs for a PC slowdown. Exxon and Chevron beat as refining profits surged.
Investors sold chips and bought bonds.
The S&P 500 fell about 2.3%, the Nasdaq Composite about 3.5% and the Dow about 1.4%. Bond traders bought Treasuries as if rates will fall. The 10-year yield dropped to about 4.93%, its lowest in seven weeks. Kalshi still priced about a 73% chance of a December Fed hike. Gold fell about 3.5% on a day bonds rallied. Brent rose about 2% to near $113. Bitcoin was near $76,400.
Bonds rallied.
Chips fell.
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Intel's forecast pulled down companies tied to PCs.
Intel's drop deepened to about 31% in regular trading. Intel (INTC) forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion, against the $17.07 billion analysts expected. Chief Executive Lip-Bu Tan said a PC slowdown was "based on the memory prices and availability." Its data center and AI revenue still rose about 78% last quarter.
The market split in two, with technology down and energy and health care up. Dell, Qualcomm and AMD each fell about 12%. The PHLX Semiconductor index fell more than 8%. Nvidia (NVDA) fell about 5%, and Alphabet and Microsoft about 2%.
The Warning Was About Memory
Intel blamed scarce, costly memory for slower PC sales, and investors sold companies tied to PCs. PC makers and chip designers fell more than twice as far as Nvidia. The AI build-out now shows up as a cost for other buyers, not only as revenue for its suppliers. Investors are pricing who pays for memory as well as who sells to data centers. PC makers' own outlooks are the next test.
Two buyout firms bid for public companies, and the boards held the deciding vote.
Global Payments jumped as much as 18% on a buyout report. CD&R has teamed up with GTCR, the largest shareholder in Global Payments (GPN), on a joint bid, the Financial Times reported. The FT said a deal may not happen. No price has been reported. The stock later pared the gain to about 11%. While it owns more than 5%, GTCR agreed not to facilitate a takeover the board has not publicly recommended.
LCI's board rejected Monomoy's $101 cash proposal. The board said the offer is not a superior proposal and is not reasonably likely to lead to one. LCI keeps its all-stock merger with Patrick Industries, with both companies voting on Nov. 18. Patrick's rally has narrowed Monomoy's premium over that deal to about 5%.
Boards Hold the Door
Buyout money is chasing listed companies, and the target's board decides which bids go forward. GTCR's own agreement ties any takeover it helps arrange to the board's public support. LCI's board kept a stock deal over a higher cash proposal. A sponsor bid now has to price the board's view along with the premium. A Global Payments statement before its Nov. 5 results, then LCI's Nov. 18 votes, come next.
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Companies with profit in hand rose on a down day.
Exxon and Chevron beat as refining profits surged. Exxon Mobil (XOM) earned an adjusted $4.23 a share, against the $4.08 analysts expected. Its refining business earned $9.0 billion, more than the $7.3 billion from production. Chevron (CVX) earned $5.28 against $4.89. Exxon set a $20 billion buyback for 2027. Both stocks touched record highs, CNBC reported.
Regeneron's earnings jumped 70%, and its stock followed. Regeneron (REGN) earned an adjusted $20.07 a share, against estimates near $16.42. Dupixent profits rose, and a development balance owed to Sanofi, now repaid, stopped reducing its share. The stock rose about 12%.
Profit Already Earned
Both beats came from profit the quarter already showed. Exxon has already set its buyback for 2027. Regeneron's jump came from higher Dupixent profits and a contract change investors knew was coming. On a day tech fell, investors paid for earnings they could count now. Refining margins into winter and revised Regeneron estimates come next.
Two venues agreed on one race and split on another.
Both big prediction markets moved Democratic Senate odds above 70%. Polymarket's contract rose 4 cents to 72.5 cents, and Kalshi's rose 4 cents to 71 cents. One 50,000-contract purchase on Kalshi came at 12:19 p.m. ET. No single piece of news lines up with that timing.
Kalshi traders cut Gadi Eisenkot's odds of becoming Israel's prime minister to 17 cents. Polymarket's contract barely moved, near 33.75 cents. Kalshi's asks who becomes prime minister following this election. Polymarket's carries over to a repeat election.
Two Venues Agreed
Neither move says who will win. Two venues moving the same distance on deep books makes the Senate move harder to dismiss. The Israel gap reflects two different questions, and it should widen if traders see a repeat vote as likelier. A move confirmed on both venues deserves more weight than one venue's swing. Election night on Nov. 3 and Israel's final count come next.
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Binance promised proof, and the breach reached a lender it never touched.
Binance says it already holds $5 billion of the exact tokens taken in its breach. It has reserved more than $6.34 billion to repay users in kind. Chief Executive Richard Teng said it aims to restore withdrawals by Sunday and publish proof of reserves by Monday.
The Binance hack still froze Aave's markets. A wallet linked to the attacker borrowed about $44 million of ether on Aave. Aave froze deposits and borrowing on nearly 300 markets and has since reopened them.
Shown, Not Promised
Friday paid for what could be checked that day. Refining cash and a two-venue Senate move were visible, while an unpriced buyout report gave back part of its jump. Binance's $5 billion stays a claim until Monday. Investors are discounting promises, from Intel's AI growth to an exchange's reserves, until they can verify them. Binance's withdrawal restart is the first test.
Investors paid for what they could see on Friday.
Intel's AI growth did not offset its memory-driven forecast. Refiners and Regeneron rose on profit already earned. An unpriced buyout report faded, and Binance's reserves await proof.
Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.
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The 10-year went from 4.19% to 5.29% this year. Every company on your screen felt that. They don't feel it on the same schedule.
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