Big technology results beat forecasts, and the stocks fell before the open. Banks committed money for EQT's Qiagen buyout as other debt sales stalled.
Stock futures fell early Thursday after technology results.
Nasdaq-100 futures fell about 1.7%, S&P 500 futures about 1% and Dow futures about 0.7%. On Wednesday, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.1% and the S&P 500 0.6%. The Bank of Korea held at 3% and raised its growth outlook on the day Korean stocks fell 3.5%. The 10-year Treasury yield ended Wednesday at 5.13%. Brent rose about 2.6% to near $111.70, and gold slipped about 1.3% to near $4,100.
Bitcoin fell back toward its 50-day average after three days of fund inflows. It traded near $81,900, down about 2.5%.
The results beat forecasts.
The stocks fell anyway.
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All three beat revenue forecasts, and the spending behind them set the tone.
Meta's capital spending exceeded the cash its business generated in the third quarter. Meta Platforms (META) grew revenue 26% to $64.60 billion, above the LSEG consensus. Capital spending of $34.91 billion topped operating cash flow of $32.79 billion. Meta raised the floor of its 2026 spending range to $135 billion. It also created a non-voting share class that it expects to sell from time to time. The shares jumped after hours, then gave back the gain and were indicated lower.
IBM raised its cash outlook, then its chief executive described clients worried about AI spending. IBM (IBM) beat estimates on revenue of $17.10 billion. On the call, Arvind Krishna said clients worry some AI spending brings "no real return." IBM was indicated about 5% lower. Lam Research (LRCX) reported record revenue of $8.22 billion and was indicated more than 7% lower. The low end of its December forecast sits below the quarter it just reported.
Spending Is the Story
Each company beat revenue forecasts, and each stock was lower before the open. Meta's spending ran ahead of its cash, and IBM's chief described doubts about returns. Lam's range allows for a slightly smaller quarter after 22% growth. Chip-equipment stocks fell even as Meta raised its budget floor. If Meta starts selling its new shares, the question of who funds the build-out moves from its cash flow to its shareholders.
A buyout found its bank money, and a sponsor sold for cash.
EQT agreed to pay 46.50 euros a share for Qiagen, and about 72% of the premium was already in the price. The offer values the diagnostics company at about 10.8 billion euros, or about $12.1 billion, including debt. Six banks committed financing, and the offer has no financing condition. Minimum acceptance is 50% plus one share, after an earlier bidder's offer failed on its threshold in 2020. Closing is expected in mid-2027.
LSEG will pay $3.5 billion in cash for Octus, a credit-data provider. Permira's funds bought Octus in 2022. Permira says the sale is its sixth strategic exit of 2026 and that it returned $13 billion to investors in 12 months.
The Money Still Came
Companies have postponed more than $5 billion of U.S. and European debt sales this month, Bloomberg reported. Qiagen's banks committed anyway, to a deal that will not close until mid-2027. Octus went to a strategic buyer for cash, with no IPO and no continuation fund. Both deals show capital still clearing at the large end. The test comes when the banks sell Qiagen's debt to investors in that same market.
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Oil rose after attacks in Saudi Arabia, and bonds rallied anyway, except in France.
Brent climbed about 3% overnight, and Treasuries rallied anyway. Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry said a drone targeting the Shaybah oil field was intercepted. Falling debris killed two people, and operations were unaffected, it said. The State Department ordered nonemergency staff to leave Saudi Arabia. The 10-year yield slipped to about 5.09% in early European trading.
French borrowing costs rose while global bonds rallied, a day before Moody's reviews France. The French 10-year yield touched 5.06%, its highest since 2002. Its premium over German debt widened to 164 basis points, the most since 2011, according to LSEG data.
France Stands Alone
In this conflict, oil spikes have usually lifted Treasury yields. Overnight, Treasuries rallied instead, a move that reads as growth worry, in the same hours that Asian technology shares slid. Nothing yet separates the Gulf headlines from the stock selloff as the cause. France's spread widened while Bunds and Treasuries gained, which isolates a French risk. If yields hold their decline through Thursday's 1 p.m. auction of inflation-protected notes, the growth reading gains weight.
Ceasefire bets partly recovered while oil rose, and talks bets priced a gap in dates.
Explosions near Hormuz knocked up to 21.5 points off Iran ceasefire contracts. Iranian media reported explosions near Sirik on Wednesday afternoon. An Israeli television report later claimed U.S. forces struck a missile launcher there, and no U.S. confirmation followed. The Polymarket contracts resolve No only on a U.S. air or missile strike that hits Iranian territory. The Oct. 24 contract fell from 93.5 cents to 72 cents and was quoted at 88 to 89 cents near 7 a.m. The Nov. 30 contract was near 38 cents, down from 46.5 cents.
Kyiv says early November, Moscow says around Nov. 10, and traders priced the gap. The Polymarket contract on talks by year-end jumped from about 44 cents to 73 cents Wednesday morning. A Kremlin aide had said Russia was ready "in principle" to resume talks. The contract reached about 80 cents after Volodymyr Zelenskyy backed talks, and it was near 72 cents by morning. The Nov. 30 talks contract sat near 63 cents.
The Rule Sets the Price
Oil rose after attacks in Saudi Arabia, which the ceasefire contracts do not count. The Oct. 24 bet bought back about three-quarters of its drop, while November expiries kept more risk priced. The gap of about 9 points between the November and December talks contracts is the market's price on slippage. Neither price is evidence that a strike or a meeting will happen.
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Thursday opens with results that beat and stocks that fell.
Meta's capital spending topped the cash its business brought in. Banks still backed a buyout valued near $12 billion. Oil rose, and Treasuries rallied anyway. Jobless claims arrive at 8:30 a.m.
Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.
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