Amazon and Intel were indicated sharply lower despite fast AI growth. Binance put a breach at $6.3 billion.
The tech selling spread overnight after Amazon and Intel reported.
Nasdaq-100 futures were down about 2.4% early Friday and S&P 500 futures about 1%, while Dow futures were flat. On Thursday, small caps rose 1% as the Nasdaq fell 1.4%. The 10-year Treasury yield closed near 4.99%. The Employment Cost Index is due at 8:30 a.m., and Exxon Mobil and Chevron report before the open. Brent is heading for a fourth straight monthly gain. U.S. crude was near $104.10, up about 2.1%. Bitcoin was near $77,300.
Crude rose.
Tech futures fell.
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Amazon's and Intel's AI businesses grew fast. Their stocks were marked down anyway.
Amazon posted its highest operating margin ever, and AWS grew 39%. Amazon (AMZN) said AWS revenue rose to about $46 billion. Sales of $201.9 billion and earnings of $1.89 a share were slightly below estimates. Free cash flow over the past 12 months was an outflow of $42.4 billion, as spending on property and equipment rose $94.8 billion. Its chief executive said spending next year will be meaningfully higher than this year's. The stock was indicated about 7% lower early Friday.
Intel beat its own forecast, then guided about $1.6 billion below Wall Street. Intel (INTC) said data center and AI revenue rose about 78% to $7.3 billion. Its PC chip sales fell 5%. It expects fourth-quarter revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion, against the $17.07 billion analysts expected. Intel cited a slower PC market and an explosion at its plant in Israel. The shares were indicated about 25% lower.
The AI Units Weren't the Problem
Both companies' AI businesses grew fast. AWS rose 39%, and Intel's data center unit about 78%. The weak spots sat elsewhere: Amazon's cash flow and outlook, Intel's PC chips and a plant outage. Fast AI growth did not shield either stock overnight. Friday's regular session will show whether the early marks hold.
Two big commitments came with conditions attached.
Cohere is raising up to C$7 billion, with Canada's government among the investors. The Canadian AI developer said it completed the first close of a Series E round. Fully raised, the round would value it at C$35.7 billion. Schwarz Group, the European retail group, is leading. Canada will invest up to about C$1.6 billion of equity in stages. In return, Cohere committed to keep its Canadian incorporation and headquarters. Cohere has not said how much it has raised so far.
Walmart committed about $6 billion more to Symbotic. Walmart (WMT) will buy warehouse robotics systems over several years. The deal could add up to $6.92 billion to Symbotic's backlog, which was $22.5 billion in June. Walmart can recommend a board nominee while it owns more than 5% of Symbotic. It can exit if Symbotic changes hands. Symbotic also faces limits on selling to one unnamed company.
Money With Conditions
In both deals, the money came with terms beyond price. Ottawa's equity is tied to keeping Cohere Canadian. Walmart's purchase commitment brings board influence and a limit on whom Symbotic can serve. In each case, the money brings a say beyond the price. Cohere's later closes and Symbotic's next backlog figure will show how much money arrives.
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Crypto's largest exchange paused withdrawals as its biggest U.S. rival reported less trading.
Binance put the damage from a breach at about $6.3 billion. The exchange said about $3 billion had been frozen on-chain. It pledged to cover all losses from its insurance fund and company money. Withdrawals remain paused, and Binance expects to restart them within 48 hours. Tether and Circle froze about $2.4 billion of stablecoins between them. Analytics firms TRM Labs and Chainalysis linked the attack to North Korea, and Binance has not said who did it.
Coinbase's revenue fell 35% from a year ago. Coinbase (COIN) said consumer spot trading volume fell 59%. Transaction revenue fell 44%, and subscription and services revenue fell 20%. That left subscriptions and services, led by stablecoins, at 49% of net revenue. Its prediction markets passed $200 million of annualized revenue. The stock was indicated about 5% lower.
Stablecoins Did the Work
Stablecoins carried both stories. Issuers froze billions of the stolen tokens within hours, which only centralized issuers can do. At Coinbase, stablecoins led the business that held up better as trading shrank. Neither report says crypto trading has bottomed. Binance's withdrawal restart and Coinbase's fourth-quarter trading pace come next.
Iran contracts swung after a strike report, and Polymarket began reviewing its own Israel market.
Traders briefly priced about a one-in-three chance of a U.S. strike on Iran by Saturday. Polymarket's contract on the ceasefire holding through Oct. 31 fell from about 96 cents to about 68 cents by 7 p.m. ET Thursday. The slide came after the Wall Street Journal reported that the head of U.S. Central Command had briefed President Trump on options for Iran. The contract was near 91 cents early Friday. The Nov. 8 contract was near 74.5 cents, down from 80.5 cents Thursday afternoon.
Polymarket is examining pre-close bets on Netanyahu. Bloomberg found more than 600 new wallets that bet on him or his Likud party before Israel's polls closed. Bloomberg called its analysis far from conclusive. Polymarket's contract on Netanyahu as the next prime minister was near 40.5 cents, from 44.5 cents Thursday afternoon. Gadi Eisenkot's was near 33 cents. Polymarket's contract carries over to a repeat election, and Kalshi's does not.
Prices Under Review
At its low, the Oct. 31 contract briefly implied about a 32% chance of a strike. The low came in a thin evening book, hours after a one-hour halt on Polymarket's international exchange. The Israel review asks whether some earlier Netanyahu prices reflected real demand. Neither market says what Washington or Israel's parties will do. Saturday's Oct. 31 expiry and Israel's official results on Nov. 4 come next.
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Amazon and Intel showed fast AI growth and were marked down anyway.
Cohere and Symbotic lined up large commitments that came with conditions. Stablecoin issuers froze part of a $6.3 billion breach, and Coinbase leaned more on stablecoins as trading fell. Prediction markets swung after a strike report, and one venue began reviewing bets on its own market.
Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.
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