Third-quarter revenue was $1.22 billion as consumer spot trading volume fell 59%. Subscriptions and services were 49% of net revenue, prediction markets passed $200 million of annualized revenue, and the company cut its expense outlook. Net income of $719 million came largely from gains on crypto it holds.
Coinbase is becoming less of an exchange. Its third quarter showed both why that matters and why it has not yet made up for the decline in trading.
Total revenue was $1.22 billion, roughly flat from the second quarter and down 35% from a year earlier. Net revenue was about $1.16 billion. Consumer spot trading volume fell 59% from a year earlier. Transaction revenue was about $590 million, down 44%. Revenue came in slightly below the roughly $1.23 billion analysts expected.
What is growing
Subscription and services revenue was $570 million, up 3% from the second quarter, and made up 49% of net revenue. Within it, stablecoin revenue was $307 million, up 5%. Paid subscribers to Coinbase One reached a record, up 24% from a year earlier.
Prediction markets passed $200 million of annualized revenue, and predictions and derivatives together made up 25% of transaction revenue. Institutional transaction revenue was $92 million, down 8%.
Haas, the chief financial officer, said total revenue was "roughly flat despite a 10% decline in total market crypto trading volume."
Profit, two ways
Net income rose 66% to $719 million, driven largely by unrealized gains on crypto held for investment. Adjusted net income, which strips those out, was $78 million, or 27 cents a share, against an estimate of 8 cents. Adjusted EBITDA was $333 million, up 60% from the second quarter and the 15th straight positive quarter.
The outlook
Coinbase said fourth-quarter transaction revenue was about $165 million so far. It expects subscription and services revenue of $550 million to $630 million in the fourth quarter, and it lowered its 2026 adjusted expense outlook to $4.15 billion to $4.30 billion, from $4.2 billion to $4.45 billion. Its share of crypto trading volume was 10.7%. It held $8.6 billion of cash.
The reaction
Coinbase shares closed at $160.59 on Thursday, down 1.07%, and were about 4.6% lower near $153.25 in premarket trading, on a night when Binance's security breach and Big Tech's results also weighed on crypto-linked stocks.
The competitive picture is shifting. Kalshi, a private prediction-market operator, was valued at $40 billion in a funding round this week, close to Coinbase's market value of about $42.4 billion.
Diversified or diminished?
The diversified view: half of revenue no longer depends on trading, prediction markets and stablecoins are growing, costs are coming down, and adjusted profit beat by a wide margin.
The diminished view: revenue is down a third from a year ago, consumer trading has more than halved, headline profit relies on crypto price gains, and private competitors are now valued near Coinbase itself.
What to watch
Fourth-quarter transaction revenue against the $165 million October pace, stablecoin revenue as Circle reports on Nov. 4, prediction-market growth, and any shift in trading volume while Binance withdrawals are paused.