The figure in OpenAI's funding talks came down from $1.4 trillion. A ceasefire contract passed its deadline without settling.
Stock futures were mixed early Friday.
S&P 500 futures slipped about 0.2%, Dow futures fell about 0.6% and Nasdaq-100 futures were flat. On Thursday, the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.6% and the S&P 500 1.2%. The 10-year Treasury yield ended Thursday near 4.96%. Brent rose about 1.2% to near $114.60, and gold slipped to near $4,040. Japan's core inflation rose back above 2% a week before the Bank of Japan meets.
Bitcoin funds swung from a day of buying to a day of selling. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs had net outflows of about $636 million on Thursday, according to Farside Investors. Bitcoin held near $81,600.
The futures steadied.
A private price came down.
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Reports of a lower figure in OpenAI's funding talks came out after Thursday's AI selloff.
OpenAI is close to raising up to $30 billion at $1.25 trillion, reports say. That is the value before the new money, CNBC reported, citing people familiar with the deal. Bloomberg reported that the figure under discussion had been $1.4 trillion. OpenAI declined to comment. Coatue and investors from the United Arab Emirates are leading the round, according to CNBC. The lower figure is still about 47% above the $852 billion value of OpenAI's March round, which included the new money.
Western Digital guided well above forecasts, and its shares swung both ways after hours. Western Digital (WDC) grew revenue 55% to $4.38 billion. Its forecast for December-quarter adjusted earnings has a midpoint about 20% above the consensus. The shares rose about 4% after the release. They then fell as much as about 8% as management discussed higher capital spending and input costs. They were indicated about 2% lower early Friday.
The Private Mark
The lower OpenAI figure surfaced after a day of heavy AI selling. The round is still priced above March. Western Digital's outlook beat forecasts, and the shares turned lower while management discussed spending. Where OpenAI's round closes is the next mark for private AI values.
Lenders have more money than deals, and a Korean builder wants a share of it.
Private credit has record money and fewer deals, and big lenders are chasing smaller borrowers. Direct lending had its worst quarter for deals in more than three years, Bloomberg reported. Some of the largest firms are now pursuing loans to companies earning less than $20 million a year, the report said. Direct-lending funds raised a record $129.15 billion in the first nine months, Preqin data show.
SK Telecom's data-center arm is seeking partners for a $350 billion first phase. SK Hyper is in talks with big tech firms and financial investors, its chief executive, Chung Suk-geun, told Bloomberg. The figure is the estimated cost of 5 gigawatts of capacity, including equipment, not money raised. Chung said securing global demand is the biggest challenge. SK Hyper targets its first outside capital for late 2026 or early 2027.
Money Looking for Borrowers
Direct lenders raised record sums while deals dried up, and some are reaching down to smaller companies. SK Hyper has the opposite problem, a $350 billion first phase and no investors announced. Demand, not money, is the risk its chief executive put first. Its first round will show how far that money will travel.
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Treasuries rallied, a sale of inflation-protected notes drew a thin bid, and France slipped into contraction.
A weak sale of inflation-protected notes showed where Thursday's bond demand was thin. The Treasury sold $26 billion of five-year TIPS at a 2.367% real yield. Bids covered 2.41 times the offering, the weakest ratio for the maturity since April 2025, according to Tipswatch. The 10-year yield fell about 17 basis points on the day, its largest one-day drop since March 2023.
France slipped into contraction on the day Moody's reviews its rating. Its flash composite PMI fell to 48.4 from 51.1, below the 50.5 expected. S&P Global said business confidence hit its lowest since 2012, outside the pandemic. The euro-area composite fell to 51.9 but stayed above 50. French 10-year yields touched their highest since 2002 on Thursday. Moody's rates France Aa3 with a negative outlook, and its decision is expected after the European close.
The Weak Spot Is French
Treasuries rallied on Thursday, and the TIPS sale still drew a thin bid at a high real yield. France now pairs a contraction with borrowing costs near 24-year highs. With the euro area still growing, the weakness is French for now. A downgrade after Friday's close would test how much of that risk French yields already carry.
A ceasefire contract passed its deadline without settling, and a tied poll barely moved a runoff bet.
Polymarket's Oct. 22 Iran ceasefire contract passed its deadline without settling. Its market data showed the resolution status as "disputed" early Friday, with Yes near 98 cents. Who disputed it, and on what grounds, was not clear early Friday. The contract turns No only on a qualifying U.S. strike on Iranian territory. U.S. Central Command has not confirmed a strike near Sirik. The White House said Thursday that the U.S. will not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterms, ABC News reported. The Oct. 24 contract traded near 92.5 cents, up from 86.5 cents at midday Thursday.
Datafolha showed Brazil's runoff tied, and traders still gave Flávio Bolsonaro about three-in-four odds. The poll put him and President Lula at 50% each in valid votes, with a 2-point margin of error. Flávio led the first round, and several other recent polls showed him narrowly ahead. Polymarket's contract on a Flávio win was near 77.5 cents before the release, dipped, and was near 77 cents early Friday. The runoff is Sunday.
A Price Is Not a Ruling
At 98 cents, the market prices only a small chance of a No outcome. Every October expiry falls before Nov. 3, the line the White House drew. In Brazil, the contract sat less than a point below its level before the poll.
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Friday opens with steadier futures.
The figure in OpenAI's talks came down, and a strong storage outlook was sold. Lenders have more money than deals. French business activity contracted before Moody's review. American Express and SLB report Friday morning, and U.S. flash PMIs arrive at 9:45 a.m.
Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.
Rates Just Reset. Who Feels It First?
On January 2, the 10-year yielded 4.19%. By September 30, 5.29% — most of it in one quarter.
Some companies earn from higher rates. Some pay. Each runs on a different clock.
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