TQ Evening Briefing
The two-year fell 10 basis points as Jefferson echoed Williams on patience. The 30-year fell 3 on the same day Trump said inflation can pay down the debt.
The Quarter's First Morning Looked Like the Last Quarter
By late morning the old trade was back. The 10-year Treasury yield touched about 5.34%, its highest since April 2002, and the S&P 500 slid to a two-week low.
Then it turned. The S&P 500 closed up 0.23% at 7,668.82. The Dow and Nasdaq each gained 0.04%, and the Russell 2000 rose 0.35%.
The 10-year ended at 5.24%, down 5 basis points. The two-year fell 10 to 4.78%. The curve steepened from the front.
Late in the day Brent was up about 4.4% and bitcoin about 1.35%. The VIX held near 16.4.
TQ Trade Implication
A curve that steepens from the front prices a slower Fed, not a calmer bond market. Friday's payrolls, forecast at 84,000, test both ends: the two-year against 4.9% and the 10-year against 5.2%.
I've Read a Lot of Mining Filings. They All Sound the Same.
This one stopped me cold.
Sitting in the filings of one small American gold company is a phrase I have never seen on a gold project: substantial support and partnership from the Department of War.
The Department of War does not partner with gold miners. Except it's partnering with this one.
Here's why. The deposit carries a second metal — one China formally banned from export to the United States. The only domestic reserve of it in the country.
Gold for the dollar war. The banned metal for the shooting war. Both from the same pit.
Washington didn't stop at words. On May 21, 2026, a federal bank voted unanimously to lend nearly $3 billion to build it. Congress got 25 days notice. Nobody objected.
When final papers are signed, funding risk goes to zero — and Wall Street re-rates the stock from speculative developer to federally backed strategic asset.
The company is about one fiftieth the size of Newmont.
Two Fed Leaders Said Wait. The Factory Survey Said Prices.
Kalshi's October rate-hike contract traded at 38 cents around 7 a.m. It hit 23 cents at 1:40 p.m. and ended the afternoon at 24.
The low came minutes after Vice Chair Philip Jefferson spoke. "My colleagues and I will need to come to our own judgment, which may take more time," he said. On Tuesday, New York Fed President John Williams saw "no need for urgency."
CME FedWatch put an October hike at 24.9% late Thursday, down from 37.6% on Wednesday.
The data disagreed. The ISM prices-paid index jumped 6.8 points to 77.9. Sixteen industries paid more in September, and none paid less. The headline index slipped to 54.5. Jefferson himself said, "I see upside risks to inflation."
Jobless claims fell to 197,000, under forecasts.
TQ Edge Setup
The October contract pays only on an October move. A December hike resolves it as no change, so part of the drop may be timing rather than doubt. A strong payrolls print tests whether 27 cents climbs back into the mid-30s. A weak one moves the trade to December.
Trump Said Inflation Can Pay the Debt. Bond Investors Have a Name for That.
In a Time interview published Thursday, President Trump said "certain levels of inflation will also pay off that debt very rapidly." He said rate increases are doing more damage than inflation.
He twice accused Fed officials of "Trump derangement syndrome" and named Governor Lisa Cook. He spared Chairman Kevin Warsh. "I probably would have voted against the board if I were him," Trump said.
The bond market's name for that risk is fiscal dominance: monetary policy bent to the needs of the debt. Bondholders get repaid in dollars worth less than the ones they lent.
The 30-year closed at 5.61%, up from 4.70% at the start of March. On Thursday it fell 3 basis points while the two-year fell 10.
TQ Edge Setup
The remarks landed in a session already reversing, and yields eased into the afternoon anyway. DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach posted on Wednesday that "those betting against 'the house' keep winning." If payrolls come in soft and the 30-year doesn't follow the two-year lower, the long end is pricing the debt, not the Fed.
They recommended Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Palantir, and more…
Now, two financial legends have joined forces to show Americans how to protect and grow their wealth…
Because as they reveal, Artificial Intelligence is about to change everything during America’s New 1776 Moment.
Public Markets Paid for AI Bookings. Private Credit Charged for AI Buildings.
Accenture (ACN) closed up 15.8% after a record 141 bookings of $100 million or more. Its fiscal 2027 guide of 3% to 6% local-currency growth tops out below the 7% just reported.
A joint venture that includes Blue Owl Capital (OWL) affiliates sold $1.12 billion of five-year secured notes last week with an 8.875% coupon, priced to yield about 9.25%, for a Virginia data center. The 76-megawatt site is described as fully leased on a long-term triple-net basis.
That coupon sits about 380 basis points over Wednesday's five-year Treasury yield.
Last week, Oracle (ORCL) was reported to have issued a force majeure notice on Project Jupiter, a separate Blue Owl-backed campus in New Mexico. Pieces of its roughly $18 billion of bank loans have traded below 90 cents on the dollar, according to people familiar with the trades. Oracle says Jupiter remains on schedule.
TQ Edge Setup
Equity paid for signed AI demand. Credit charged for the risk of delivering it. An 8.875% coupon and bank paper below 90 suggest lenders price delay and tenant risk more heavily than a long lease implies. The next data-center financings show whether 8.875% is an outlier or the benchmark.
- Europe's long end took the worst of it. Britain's 30-year gilt yield reached 6.07%, above 6% for the first time since 1998. The French-German spread hit about 1.33 points, its widest since 2012. The euro fell about 0.8% to near $1.124, sliding with its bonds instead of rallying on yield.
- Crude rose, diesel fell. Brent turned higher after Chinese refiners suspended product exports, according to people briefed on the decision. Heating oil futures slipped about 1.0%.
- Citi's bitcoin target outran the flows. Citi lifted its 12-month bitcoin target to $113,000 from $82,000, assuming about $5 billion of inflows a year. Spot bitcoin ETFs took in about $3.1 billion in nine sessions, then posted outflows of $148.69 million on Sept. 30.
- Nike beat on profit and guided lower. Nike (NKE) entered the report at a 12-year low. First-quarter revenue fell 4% to $11.2 billion, under the $11.3 billion expected. Earnings of 48 cents topped the 44-cent forecast. Nike guided fiscal 2027 revenue down by a high single digit. Shares traded near $32 shortly after the release, about 8% below the $35.15 close.
Landmark Executive Order 14241 Unleashes
TRUMP’S NEW DOLLAR
Republican or Democrat – whether you support or oppose Trump’s New Dollar – every American could soon be forced to use it
Discover three critical moves to help you prepare, before it’s too late
The Front End Moved. The Long End Is Still Waiting.
Thursday opened where the third quarter left off, with the 10-year touching 5.34% and the gilt above 6%.
By the close the front end had done the moving. The two-year fell 10 basis points, the 30-year 3, and the October hike contract went from 38 cents to the mid 20’s.
The rest still leans the other way. No industry paid less, lenders charged nearly 9% for a leased data center, and the President said inflation has its uses.
Friday at 8:30 a.m., payrolls test both ends. A strong number puts the two-year back near 4.9%. A weak one that leaves the 10-year above 5.2% says the long end's problem isn't the Fed.
3 Market Signals Most Investors Aren't Watching
The headline is usually the last place the story shows up.
By the time everyone is talking about a stock… the signals underneath it may have been changing for weeks.
• Institutional money moves.
• Options activity changes.
• Management confidence shifts.
• Fundamentals improve, or quietly begin telling a different story.
That’s exactly what our analysts found in three stocks where the evidence stopped agreeing with itself.
And in all three cases, the story is still developing.