A 44% decline has left the stock at its lowest in 12 years. Analysts expect fiscal first-quarter earnings of 44 cents a share on revenue of about $11.3 billion, with tariffs a leading complaint among U.S. manufacturers this week.
Nine months of losses have set a low bar for Nike's fiscal first quarter.
The sportswear company's shares traded around $36.10 on Thursday afternoon, up about 2% on the day. They are down roughly 44% in 2026, which puts the starting point for the year near $64. Each share has lost about $28 since January, and the stock now sits at a 12-year low. Fiscal first-quarter results come after the closing bell.
The bar
Analysts expect earnings of about 44 cents a share on revenue of about $11.3 billion.
Set against a $36 stock, that quarterly forecast is modest. Four quarters at the same pace would come to about $1.76 a share, a little over 20 times the current price. That figure ignores seasonality and is useful only as a scale for how much earnings recovery the market is willing to pay for.
The cost question
The week's macro data leaves Nike with two pressures to address. In Thursday's national factory survey, prices paid for materials jumped 6.8 points to 77.9, and among purchasing managers' negative comments, 34% cited tariffs. Petroleum-based inputs were among the drivers named by economists. Both feed into the gross margin line Nike reports tonight.
Demand signals are mixed. First-time unemployment claims fell to 197,000 last week, which supports spending, while Friday's payroll report is expected to show only modest hiring.
What each number tests
Revenue against $11.3 billion tests whether demand has stabilized. Gross margin tests how much of the tariff and materials pressure Nike can pass on. The holiday-quarter outlook tests whether management sees an end to the decline.
Two readings
One reading is that a stock that has lost $28 a share already prices in weak demand and heavier costs, so results in line with forecasts could be enough to lift it.
A second reading is that a 12-year low reflects a business still losing ground, and that a tariff-heavy cost environment makes a margin recovery harder to deliver this year.
After the bell
Trading after the release will deliver the first verdict. The conference call's guidance on margins is the piece most likely to decide whether the $36 level holds.