Citigroup now sees bitcoin at $113,000 and ether at $3,028 in 12 months, with $5 billion flowing into crypto products. Spot bitcoin funds took in about $3.1 billion over nine sessions before snapping the streak on Sept. 30.
Citigroup turned more bullish on crypto this week. The model behind its call assumes a far slower pace of fund buying than investors just saw.
In a note dated Sept. 30, Citi strategists led by Alex Saunders lifted their bitcoin price target for the next 12 months from $82,000 to $113,000, and their ether target from $2,240 to $3,028. Both are increases of more than a third. The strategists cited stronger crypto activity, a supportive macro backdrop and renewed inflows into exchange-traded funds. "The increase draws from all three components of our process: activity, macro, and ETF flows," they wrote.
Bitcoin traded near $84,844 on Thursday afternoon, up about 1.5% on the day, which puts Citi's target about 33% above the current price. Ether, near $2,699, sits about 12% below its new target.
The flow assumption
Citi expects inflows to be "slower but stickier," with about $5 billion moving into crypto products over the next 12 months.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs took in about $3.1 billion over nine straight sessions through Sept. 29, roughly $344 million a day. Citi's $5 billion over a year works out to about $20 million per trading day. The forecast assumes a pace of buying about one-seventeenth of what the funds just delivered.
That run ended on Sept. 30, when spot bitcoin funds recorded net outflows of $148.69 million. Fidelity's FBTC accounted for $125.58 million, Bitwise's BITB for $13.63 million and BlackRock's IBIT for $9.48 million. Total net assets stood at $107.98 billion.
Policy in the call
Citi said the failure of the Clarity Act, the crypto market-structure bill that lost a Senate cloture vote in September, "spurred SEC rule announcements that dampened negative sentiment." It also flagged a risk: a change of administration in 2028 could roll those agency rules back.
The rates test
Bitcoin's gain on Thursday came on a day the 10-year Treasury yield touched about 5.34%, its highest since 2002, before easing to about 5.24% by midafternoon. Higher yields raise the cost of holding an asset that pays no interest. Bitcoin's low for the day was about $83,166, and it traded as high as about $85,058. One session does not establish that the two have decoupled.
Shares of Strategy, which holds 847,666 bitcoin, rose 3.8%, and Coinbase gained 1.5%.
Targets move
Citi's targets have moved sharply before. A year ago, its 12-month bitcoin forecast stood at $181,000.
Two readings
One reading is that regulatory clarity from the agencies, plus allocators adding crypto through ETFs, gives prices a durable bid, and that Citi's modest flow assumption makes its target conservative.
A second reading is that a 10-year yield at a 24-year high caps risk appetite, and that the end of the inflow streak on the same day as the upgrade shows how quickly fund demand can stall.
The next flows
Daily ETF flow figures for Oct. 1 will show whether Sept. 30 was a one-day pause or the start of the slower pace Citi models. Friday's payroll report will move both rate expectations and bitcoin.