Treasury sells $22 billion of 30-year bonds Thursday, after dealers took just 2.5% of Wednesday's 10-year sale. Fed minutes leaned toward another hike by year-end. A private credit fund filled less than half its exit requests for a third straight quarter.
The 10-Year Cleared at 5.3%. The 30-Year Asks for More Duration.
The 10-year Treasury yield touched about 5.36% before Wednesday's open, its highest since 2002. Then Treasury sold $39 billion of 10-year notes at 5.30%, and dealers took only 2.5%. Their average is 9.4%.
The yield ended near 5.28%. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% from Tuesday's record. The Russell 2000 fell 1.3%, to about 1% above correction territory.
Fed minutes released at 2 p.m. said most officials saw another hike as likely appropriate by year-end.
Oil added a new risk overnight. Brent traded near $105, up almost 5%, early Thursday. The Atlantic reported that the White House asked the Pentagon for options to resume strikes on Iran.
Treasury sells $22 billion of 30-year bonds at 1 p.m. Thursday.
Investor Signal
A strong auction shows who buys at 5.3%. It does not lower the 5.3%. That cost landed Wednesday on the parts of the market that reprice fastest: small caps, home buyers, private-fund holders and leveraged crypto. The 30-year sale tests whether the same buyers want longer paper, now with oil adding inflation risk.
Historically, Q4 Is the Strongest Quarter of the Year.
And our just-updated free report — 10 Best Stocks to Own: Fall 2026 — identifies the 10 best-positioned companies to own right now. Including:
- A high-yield dividend payer adding growth to their story
- AI companies monetizing the boom instead of just riding the hype
- A steady grower offering diversification for tech-heavy portfolios
- An American powerhouse growing domestically and expanding internationally
Plus six more companies turning growth opportunities into stronger fundamentals — setting investors up through year-end and into 2027.
The Minutes Leaned Toward One More Hike. Traders Still Doubt October.
The Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4% in September in a unanimous vote, its first increase since 2023.
The minutes said "most participants" judged another increase "would likely be appropriate by year end." A couple raised their estimate of the neutral rate. Several saw policy as not restrictive or only mildly so.
A few officials cited "increased expectations for AI-related borrowing" among reasons long yields rose. Fed staff said spreads on hyperscaler debt "remained wide, given the large volume of issuance," the minutes show. SpaceX (SPCX) is in early talks to raise about $40 billion, mostly investment-grade debt, with Apollo (APO) expected to lead.
Kalshi's October hike contract held at 17 cents on Wednesday after the release, about a 17% chance.
Investor Signal
The meeting the minutes cover predate the 29,000-job September report, so traders read them as a snapshot. The AI line matters more for long bonds than for October. Private AI borrowers and Treasury now court the same long-term buyers, and a few officials named that as a yield factor. September consumer prices on Oct. 14 decide whether a hike before year-end moves closer.
Small Caps Neared a Correction. Mortgage Rates Hit a Near Three-Year High.
The Russell 2000 ended about 1% above its correction line. The Dow transports closed about 2% above a bear market.
Caterpillar (CAT) fell about 6%. Deere (DE) fell 3.8% on the day, sliding as the FTC and USDA opened an inquiry into farm-equipment markets.
Housing took the rate move directly. The average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 7.49%, its seventh straight weekly increase. On a $400,000 loan, one week's rise adds about $52 a month.
"Mortgage rates increased to their highest level in almost three years," said Joel Kan of the Mortgage Bankers Association. Applications fell for a fifth week, and a homebuilder fund touched a 52-week low.
Garrett Melson of Natixis Investment Managers Solutions tied the pattern to the 10-year's climb from about 4% in early March. "Under the surface, you are seeing exactly what you'd expect to see," he said.
Investor Signal
The S&P 500 stayed within 0.2% of its record. The damage sits in the corners that price off long rates: small caps, transports and builders. Two readings fit. A slowdown may be showing up first where rates bite, or the yield spike may be near its peak. The share of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day averages separates the two.
The REAL Reason Trump Is Invading Iran
For a moment…
Forget about Trump’s ties to Israel.
Forget about reports of Iran’s nuclear program.
Because my research has led me to believe we’re risking World War 3 with Iran for a completely different reason.
Click here to find out what it is.
If you have even a single dollar invested in the U.S. stock market, this is going to directly impact you.
Private Credit Holders Asked for Twice the Exit the Fund Allows
Investors in Barings Private Credit Corp. asked to redeem about 10.7% of shares last quarter. The fund caps repurchases at 5% a quarter.
It filled about 47% of each request, its third straight quarter of proration. In December 2025, it paid every request in full, when about 3.8% was tendered.
Partners Group's London-listed private equity fund took another route. Shareholders voted 99.89% to wind it down. Cash comes back twice a year, starting in March 2027.
Exits outside the cap cost more. In an auction run by Nasdaq Fund Secondaries and LODAS Markets, some interval-fund shares traded at a 15% discount to net asset value.
Investor Signal
Redemption requests can reflect sentiment rather than losses, and holders who expect proration often ask for more than they need. Still, three straight quarters of queues show demand for the exit is steady. One reading: with Treasuries paying 5.3% and trading daily, the bar for a quarterly-exit fund is higher. The fourth-quarter tender shows whether requests settle near 10% or climb.
Black Hills Will Build $1.8 Billion of Gas Plants for Google. The Financing Is Still Open.
Black Hills (BKH) signed contracts with Google (GOOGL) to power a planned data center in Cheyenne, Wyoming, through 2048.
It plans to invest $1.8 billion from 2027 to 2029 in 564 megawatts of company-owned gas generation. Google has provided $399 million of refundable advances, which Black Hills expects to repay by June 30, 2027.
The stock rose about 7% Wednesday. The company expects about $150 million of net income in 2030. It says the costs of serving the data center do not shift to existing retail customers.
How it pays is still open. Black Hills is evaluating financing options focused on earnings accretion, while keeping its investment-grade credit ratings.
Investor Signal
This is the kind of AI-related borrowing the Fed minutes named. Debt adds leverage at a time of 5.3% long yields. New shares would dilute the per-share gain. The stock jumped before the funding was set, so the financing announcement is the signpost.
A "bloodbath" Is Coming
Silicon Valley billionaires are hoarding guns, gold, and even military grade gas masks... or fleeing the country altogether. What do they know that you don't? This AI insider is stepping forward with this time-critical message: Move your money before October 31st, ahead of the dangerous next phase of the AI market. Here's the one urgent move you need to make with your money immediately.
This ad is sent on behalf of TradeSmith at 1125 N. Charles Street, Baltimore, Maryland 21201. If you're not interested in this opportunity, please click here.
Bitcoin Set an October Low, Then Broke It Overnight
Bitcoin fell to about $82,740 at 9 a.m. Wednesday, its lowest of October. It ended near $83,500, down about 2.4%, and did not recover when yields eased after the auction. It traded near $82,400 early Thursday, below that low.
Ether fell about 4.5% to near $2,575. Strategy (MSTR), which holds bitcoin as its main asset, lost 6.8%.
BitMine (BMNR) fell 5.9% after chairman Tom Lee said it will stop buying ether at 5% of supply. It holds about 4.9%.
Spot bitcoin ETFs lost about $485 million Wednesday, per Farside Investors. Spot ether ETFs had their seventh straight day of outflows. Bitcoin futures open interest is down about 10% since late September.
Investor Signal
Bitcoin fell as yields rose and stayed down when they eased. One reading is that positioning mattered more than rates. Leverage is shrinking, fund money is leaving, and CryptoQuant calls spot demand "subdued." Ether also learned when its steadiest corporate buyer will stop. Leveraged holders such as Strategy magnify both moves.
Long money came back for Treasuries at a two-decade-high yield, and dealers barely had to step in. The Fed's minutes leaned toward one more hike and named AI borrowing as a reason long rates rose.
The cost landed at the edges: small caps, home loans, fund exits and crypto leverage. The long-bond sale, with oil climbing again, tests whether buyers want more duration at these prices.
3 Market Signals Most Investors Aren't Watching
The headline is usually the last place the story shows up.
By the time everyone is talking about a stock… the signals underneath it may have been changing for weeks.
• Institutional money moves.
• Options activity changes.
• Management confidence shifts.
• Fundamentals improve, or quietly begin telling a different story.
That’s exactly what our analysts found in three stocks where the evidence stopped agreeing with itself.
And in all three cases, the story is still developing.