The contract had risen from 15 to 17 cents before dawn. After the 2 p.m. release, about 5,790 contracts changed hands at the same price, close to what futures imply for an October increase.
The Fed's minutes gave event-contract traders a reason to reprice an October rate increase on Wednesday afternoon. They did not take it.
Kalshi's contract that pays out if the Federal Reserve raises rates by a quarter point at its decision traded at 17 cents shortly after the 2 p.m. Eastern release, implying about a 17% chance. Roughly 5,790 contracts changed hands at that level at 2:07 p.m. The price was unchanged from before the release.
The day's path
The contract's move came earlier. It had gone from 15 cents to 17 cents by its first trade of the day at 5:57 a.m., hours before any economic data. It dipped to 16 cents at 1:10 p.m., when about 4,980 contracts traded on the "no" side, then returned to 17 cents after the minutes.
What the minutes said
The minutes of the September meeting said "most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end." They gave no indication of which meeting. The Fed meets twice more this year, on and 28 and in December.
Futures priced roughly a 20% chance of an October increase and about an 85% chance by December. Kalshi's October contract is within a few points of the futures-implied probability.
The year-end wording
"By year end" is not October. A majority expecting another increase at one of two remaining meetings is consistent with a low October probability and a high December one. The minutes also predate September's weak jobs report, which showed payrolls rising by 29,000 and unemployment at 4.2%, and a softer inflation report, both of which pushed traders toward a later move.
How investors may read it
One reading is that the contract, like futures, correctly separated the minutes' year-end language from the October decision, and that the volume at an unchanged price shows traders agreed on that.
Another reading is that the minutes contain hawkish detail, including officials raising their estimates of the neutral rate and some seeing policy as only mildly restrictive, that a contract focused on October does not capture, and that the risk would show up in December pricing.
The September consumer price index on is the last major release before the decision. A hot reading would test whether the October contract stays near 17 cents. A gap opening between Kalshi and futures after that release would show whether the two markets weigh the same data differently.