Kalshi's quarter-point hike contract slipped to 5 cents from 7 cents, after a single trade of about 120,000 contracts sold the hike at 6 cents on Tuesday afternoon. Polymarket's no-change contract rose to about 95 cents.
Prediction Markets | FinancialMarkets.com | October 28, 2026
Tickers: SHY, IEF, TLT, UUP
On Tuesday, buyers took about 140,000 contracts betting on a Fed hike at 7 cents in ten minutes. Two hours later, someone sold almost as many in a single trade.
On Kalshi, the contract that pays out if the Federal Reserve raises rates by a quarter point on Wednesday last traded at 5 cents at 4:34 a.m. Eastern, down from 7 cents on Tuesday afternoon and in a range of 4 to 7 cents. Since 1:48 p.m. Tuesday, it has traded about 291,400 contracts in 350 trades.
The largest was a single sweep at 2:36 p.m. Tuesday of about 120,000 contracts, in which the taker sold the hike, buying "No" at 6 cents. The price drifted lower after that.
On Polymarket, the contract on no change in rates at this meeting rose to 95.05 cents from 93.15 cents, after reaching 95.95 cents on Tuesday evening.
What the flows show
The midday buying on Tuesday did not move the price, and the afternoon sale did. That sequence suggests the earlier buyer was absorbed by plentiful sellers, while the large sale reached deeper into the order book. It says nothing about who either party was. Hedging, position squaring before the market closes at 1:59 p.m. Eastern and simple disagreement about a small probability can all produce flows like these. Nothing in the trading indicates information about the decision.
The market now matches the consensus
At about 5 cents, the venues are in line with other measures. CME's FedWatch tool put the probability of a hold at 92.8% at Tuesday's close. In a CNBC survey, 93% of respondents expected a pause. The Fed's target range is 3.75% to 4.00%.
December is where the money is
The question that remains open is the next meeting. Kalshi traders put the probability of a December hike at about 79%, and 76% of respondents in CNBC's survey expect one. That is why Wednesday's statement and Chair Warsh's press conference matter more than the decision itself. Any signal on whether the Fed sees December as live will move the next set of contracts.
The backdrop does not make that easy. Crude oil was back above $100 a barrel early Wednesday, and consumers told the Conference Board on Tuesday that they expect 5.8% inflation over the next year.
Where the debate sits
One view is that 5 cents is right or even generous. A hold is the overwhelming expectation, and the Fed has said nothing during its blackout period to suggest otherwise.
The other is that a small chance of a surprise is worth more than 5 cents in a month of rising oil prices and elevated inflation expectations, which is why some traders were willing to pay 7 cents a day earlier.
What to watch
The Kalshi market's close at 1:59 p.m. Eastern, the statement at 2 p.m., Chair Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m., and December contract pricing in the hour after.