The platform is investigating new wallets that bet on Netanyahu or Likud before Israel's polls closed. Its Netanyahu contract fell 5 points to 39.5 cents, and Eisenkot's rose 5.3 points to 33.85 cents. On Kalshi, Eisenkot gained 8 points. Polymarket also halted its international exchange for an hour after a vendor was compromised.
Polymarket had a difficult Thursday. Its Israeli election market came under scrutiny, and its international exchange went offline for an hour.
The investigation
Polymarket is investigating suspicious bets on Israel's election. Bloomberg found more than 600 wallets, created the same day and with no prior history, that bet on Benjamin Netanyahu or his Likud party before polls closed. Bloomberg described its own analysis as "far from conclusive." Sens. Warren and Curtis have also sent a letter on the matter.
The context is a spike. Polymarket's Netanyahu contract rose to about 59% on Oct. 27, the day of the vote, according to Bloomberg.
The prices since
Polymarket's contract on Netanyahu being the next prime minister fell to 39.5 cents early Friday from 44.5 cents on Thursday afternoon, on $1.51 million of 24-hour volume. The contract on Gadi Eisenkot rose to 33.85 cents from 28.55 cents.
On Kalshi, Eisenkot's contract rose 8 points to 25 cents in thin trading. Netanyahu's was unchanged at 21 cents, though it briefly traded as low as 10 cents at 11:30 p.m. ET in a sell order that reversed within seconds. The gap between the two venues' Netanyahu prices narrowed to 18.5 points from 23.5.
The venues ask different questions. Polymarket's contract carries over to a repeat election if this one produces no government. Kalshi's settles on government formation after the 2026 vote.
What happened in Israel
Israel's Shin Bet security service said its inquiry into suspicions around the vote is based on its own intelligence, is not finished and will not delay the results. Eisenkot and Bennett met to discuss forming a government. Official results are due on Nov. 4. Israeli assets barely moved: the main Israel ETF rose about 0.3%, and the shekel was slightly weaker at about 3.12 per dollar.
The outage
Separately, Polymarket's international exchange was halted from 2:05 p.m. to 3:05 p.m. ET on Thursday after a third-party provider was compromised. Analytics firms estimated that about $2.7 million was taken from 710 wallets. Polymarket said all affected traders were being reimbursed. Its U.S. platform was not affected.
Signal or distortion?
The signal view: both venues moved toward Eisenkot, Polymarket has a deep book on this contract, and the decline may reflect a clearer picture of coalition arithmetic.
The distortion view: the platform is investigating whether some of its earlier Netanyahu prices were driven by suspicious wallets, unwinding those positions could explain part of the move, and the overnight trading was thin.
What to watch
Polymarket's findings, certification of results on Nov. 4, President Herzog's consultations, any coalition announcement, and the venues' prices after official results.