Kalshi's contract on Benjamin Netanyahu becoming prime minister fell to 21 cents from 29 cents, driven by a few large trades. Polymarket's broader contract slipped only 1.5 points to 44.5 cents. The gap between the two venues widened to 23.5 points.
Israel's Central Elections Committee finished counting on Thursday. The final tally did not change the balance between the blocs. One prediction market reacted as if something important had happened.
The count
With the double-envelope ballots, including soldiers' votes, now counted, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc holds 53 seats, the opposition bloc 48 and Arab parties 19, unchanged from the regular count, according to the committee's figures as reported in Israeli media. A majority in the 120-seat Knesset requires 61. Likud has 27 seats, Yashar 21, Together 12, the Joint List 11, the Democrats 8 and Ra'am 8. There were 5,564,764 valid votes. A final batch of 24,713 votes is being verified, and official results are due on Nov. 4.
The committee's chairman asked the Shin Bet security service to examine suspicions of foreign funding and bribery connected to the vote. Police have found no evidence to support Likud's broader claims of fraud. Gadi Eisenkot said he "will not allow any delay" in swearing in the new Knesset.
The contracts
On Kalshi, the contract on Netanyahu becoming prime minister after the 2026 election fell to 21 cents in early afternoon from 29 cents early Thursday, trading as low as 19 cents. Almost 220,000 contracts changed hands. The move was concentrated in a few trades: a sale of about 21,900 contracts at 27 cents at 7:49 a.m. Eastern, and sales of 20,000 contracts at 25 cents and about 9,900 at 20 cents in the same second at 9:10 a.m. Eisenkot's Kalshi contract rose to 17 cents from 14, and "No one" edged up to 54 cents.
On Polymarket, Netanyahu's contract slipped to 44.5 cents from 46 cents, on about $2.15 million of 24-hour volume. Eisenkot's rose to about 28.6 cents from 25.4, with most of the gain in the last hour before 2 p.m.
Israeli assets barely moved. The main Israel ETF was up about 0.2%, and the shekel was slightly firmer at about 3.11 per dollar.
Two questions, two answers
The venues ask different questions. Polymarket's contract resolves on whoever is next sworn in as prime minister, and if the deadlock leads to a new election, it carries forward to that election. Kalshi's settles on who becomes prime minister through government formation following the 2026 election, so a repeat election would likely pay "No one." That difference accounts for much of the gap between the venues, which stood at 17 points early Thursday and is now 23.5.
What the trades may say
The completed count removed one source of uncertainty without improving Netanyahu's arithmetic. On Kalshi's question, which depends on forming a government from this Knesset, that may reasonably weigh on his odds. But the size of the move rests on a handful of large orders in a contract that rose from 25 cents to 29 cents overnight before falling to 21 cents. That pattern is consistent with one or two traders repositioning rather than a broad shift in opinion.
What to watch
Certification of official results on Nov. 4, President Herzog's consultations with party leaders, the outcome of the Shin Bet review, any arrangement involving Arab parties, and talk of a repeat election.