With all regular ballots counted, Netanyahu's bloc has 53 seats, the opposition 48 and Arab parties 19. Polymarket's Netanyahu contract slipped to 46.5 cents, while Kalshi's "No one" stayed its most expensive outcome at 57 cents. The main Israel ETF fell about 5%.
The count in Israel's election has removed one source of uncertainty and confirmed another. Neither bloc has a majority, and the markets that price the outcome have reacted in very different ways.
With 100% of regular votes counted, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc holds 53 seats, the opposition bloc 48 and Arab parties 19, according to the Central Elections Committee's tally as reported in Israeli media. Likud has 26 seats and Yashar 21. Among the Arab parties, the Joint List has 12 and Ra'am 7. Turnout was 77.7%. Double-envelope ballots, including soldiers' votes, are counted later, and all figures are unofficial until certified. A majority in the 120-seat Knesset requires 61.
Prediction markets: small moves after a big night
On Polymarket, the contract on Netanyahu being the next prime minister was at 46.5 cents at about 1:47 p.m. Eastern, down from 49 cents early Wednesday, in a range of 44 to 48.5 cents. It traded about $9.8 million over 24 hours. Gadi Eisenkot's contract was at 26.8 cents, up from 25 cents, after spiking to about 33 cents in the 10 a.m. hour and falling back.
On Kalshi, Netanyahu traded at 25 cents, down from 28 cents late Tuesday. Eisenkot rose to 15 cents from 13. The most expensive Kalshi outcome remains "No one," at 57 cents, down from 60.
Those moves are modest compared with Tuesday night, when Netanyahu's Polymarket contract rose to 49 cents from 31.5 cents after the exit polls as the count came in. Most of the repricing had already happened.
Not the same question
The roughly 21-cent gap between Netanyahu's prices on the two venues likely reflects different contract rules more than different views of Netanyahu.
Polymarket's contract resolves to "the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election." Crucially, "If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election," and "Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count." If no one is sworn in by Dec. 31, 2027, it resolves to "Other."
Kalshi's contracts pay if a person becomes prime minister "as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election" before Oct. 27, 2027.
A repeat election is one plausible way out of a 53-48-19 deadlock. Under Kalshi's rule, that path likely pays "No one." Under Polymarket's, it carries forward to whoever is sworn in after the next vote. That difference alone can explain much of the gap.
Assets moved more than the contracts
Israeli financial markets reacted far more on Wednesday than the prime minister contracts did. The iShares MSCI Israel ETF fell about 5.1% to $118.01. The shekel weakened more than 1% to about 3.12 per dollar, its weakest level since April. The TA-125 index fell nearly 3% and the 10-year government bond yield rose above 4.1%. The selloff reversed gains made on Tuesday, when turnout ran at record levels.
Asset prices were also exposed to Iran-related risk and the broader market, and the shekel had begun weakening overnight before the regular count was complete. But the direction fits a market pricing a prolonged period without a government rather than a named winner.
Two venues, one stalemate
Polymarket's prices still make Netanyahu the most likely person to be sworn in eventually. Kalshi's make no government from this election the most likely outcome. Both can be right at once if the deadlock leads to another vote.
What to watch
The double-envelope count, certification of results, the president's consultations with party leaders, any arrangement between the opposition and Arab parties, and any talk of a repeat election, which the two venues treat differently.