Oracle set a fiscal 2030 goal of more than $225 billion in revenue, about where analysts already were. It also promised to raise no more than $20 billion of new outside capital through 2030 and set a date for positive free cash flow. The shares rose 10.6%, adding about $42 billion of market value.
Oracle told investors on Wednesday it would be a $225 billion company by fiscal 2030. Analysts polled by LSEG were already projecting $224.2 billion, CNBC reported. What was new was a different number.
At its investor day in Las Vegas, Oracle set a fiscal 2030 outlook of "$225 billion+ in total revenue, representing more than 35% CAGR from FY26," a non-GAAP operating margin of at least 40% and non-GAAP earnings of at least $21 a share. It reaffirmed its fiscal 2027 outlook for revenue of at least $90 billion and non-GAAP earnings of $8.10 a share.
What was new
The new commitments were about money. Oracle said it would limit additional funding raised in the capital markets for its fiscal 2027 to 2030 investment cycle to $20 billion, "currently expected to be $10 billion in equity and $10 billion in gross debt." That is on top of a $20 billion at-the-market equity raise completed in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, and it excludes refinancing of existing debt.
It also put a date on cash generation. Oracle expects positive free cash flow "during the second half of FY28" and at least $30 billion of free cash flow in fiscal 2029, after capital spending peaks in fiscal 2027 and 2028. It said growth will be self-funded from fiscal 2029, and it expects net debt to adjusted EBITDA below 3.5 times that year. Its first stated capital priority remains keeping investment-grade credit ratings.
Co-chief executives Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia and finance chief Hilary Maxson presented the plan.
The size of the hole
The cash-flow promise starts from a deep deficit. In fiscal 2026, which ended in May, Oracle generated $32.0 billion of operating cash flow and spent $55.7 billion on capital projects, for free cash flow of about negative $23.7 billion. Reaching positive $30 billion in fiscal 2029 means a swing of at least $53.7 billion in three years, by our arithmetic.
Oracle says part of the bridge will come from others: "Vendor financing, customer-provided hardware and customer prepayments are expected to reduce upfront cash requirements." None of those was sized. Oracle's leverage definition does count vendor financing and leases as debt, which means the 3.5-times target includes them.
The reaction
Oracle shares closed at $144.34, up 10.58% on 79.1 million shares, adding roughly $41.8 billion of market value. The software sector barely moved: a software ETF rose 0.1% and the S&P 500 0.3%. The stock is still about 49% below its 52-week high of $281.62. Shares rose sharply during the investor day and were indicated about 2% lower early Thursday, after Microsoft and Alphabet reported overnight.
At Wednesday's price, $10 billion of new equity would equal about 2.3% of Oracle's market value. Including the raise already completed, total new outside capital through fiscal 2030 would be at most about $40 billion, roughly $30 billion of it equity.
Re-rating or repackaging?
The re-rating case: Oracle has finally given investors a ceiling on dilution and capital-markets debt, a date for free cash flow, and a leverage target that already counts vendor financing and leases. From a stock nearly half off its high, lower financing risk alone can justify a higher price.
The repackaging case: the revenue path is what analysts expected, the cap covers only capital-markets raises and excludes refinancing, and the plan shifts part of the funding burden to vendors, customers and lessors without saying how much. Delivering a $54 billion cash swing depends on contracts and prepayments investors cannot yet see.
What to watch
Fiscal second-quarter results around Dec. 14, especially operating cash flow and capital spending against the plan; any equity or debt issuance under the cap; disclosure of vendor financing and customer prepayment balances; and rating-agency commentary.