At its investor day, the chipmaker raised its fiscal 2028 revenue goal to about $20 billion and set a $70 billion to $90 billion range three years later. Networking peers rallied while storage stocks sold off.
Equity Markets · FinancialMarkets.com · October 6, 2026 · Tickers: MRVL, AVGO, CIEN, ALAB, CRDO, AMD, STX, WDC, SOXX
Marvell Technology gave investors a set of numbers on Tuesday large enough to move a $250 billion company more than 6% in a session.
At its investor day, the chipmaker said it now expects revenue of about $20 billion in fiscal 2028, above the roughly $18.2 billion analysts had been expecting. It also set its first target for fiscal 2031: $70 billion to $90 billion. Analysts had been looking for about $47 billion that year, so the midpoint of the new range is about 70% higher than their estimate.
The growth rate the range implies
Marvell has raised its fiscal 2028 goal several times since late 2025, when it stood near $13 billion. Measured from the roughly $8.2 billion of revenue the company reported for fiscal 2026, the 2031 range implies compound annual growth of about 54% to 61% over five years. From the new 2028 target alone, reaching the low end requires growth of about 52% a year for three years, and the high end about 65%.
The company tied part of that outlook to a Google agreement disclosed in August, which it said could generate up to $120 billion of sales through fiscal 2033 if performance milestones are met. Marvell's chief executive put the addressable market for artificial-intelligence chips at $400 billion by 2030.
The trading
The shares opened at $294.35, hit $301.04, fell as low as $279.74 around midday and traded near $289.11 at about 2:15 p.m. Eastern, up 6.6%. The iShares Semiconductor ETF rose 0.7% over the same period. Before Tuesday, Marvell stock had already more than tripled this year, a gain of more than 242%.
The swing from the morning high to the midday low, about 7%, suggests the targets started as much debate as enthusiasm. A range as wide as $70 billion to $90 billion, five years out, leaves a $20 billion difference between its ends, larger than the company's entire 2028 target.
Who else moved
Other companies tied to data-center networking and connectivity rose with Marvell. Ciena gained 11.7%, Astera Labs 7.6%, Broadcom 4.7% and Credo Technology 4.4%. Advanced Micro Devices rose about 3% after Citi raised its price target to $800 from $575, arguing that AI agents are turning server processors into a bottleneck.
Storage moved the opposite way. Seagate Technology fell 9.4% and Western Digital 7.3%. The split suggests investors are sorting AI suppliers by product line rather than buying the theme as a block.
Competing views
The bullish view holds that Marvell is converting design wins with hyperscalers into multiyear revenue visibility, and that a fiscal 2028 target already raised several times shows the company has been under-promising.
The skeptical view holds that targets five years out carry little information, that the range depends on milestones in customer contracts, and that a stock up more than 240% this year has already priced a good deal of the story.
Checkpoints
Marvell's next quarterly report will show whether near-term revenue is tracking toward the fiscal 2028 goal. Any disclosure of how much of the 2031 range rests on the Google agreement would show how concentrated the outlook is. Whether analysts move their 2031 estimates toward the company's range, or leave them near $47 billion, will show how much of the target the sell side accepts.