Brent climbed above $116, and Treasury yields gave back part of Thursday's rally. Businesses raised prices at the fastest pace since 2022, and households raised their long-run inflation outlook. Robert Half's staffing arm grew for the first time since 2022, and its shares rose about 22%.
The Dow Fell About 650 Points as Energy Rose and Tech Steadied
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 650 points, or 1.2%, on Friday. The S&P 500 lost about 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped about 0.2%, a day after its worst session since June.
The selling shifted out of tech and into other sectors. Card stocks weighed on the Dow, while energy shares rallied. Micron (MU) rose about 2.5% as memory chips rebounded.
LKQ (LKQ) fell about 22% after it replaced its chief executive and withdrew its forecast. Its European margin roughly halved.
Gold fell about 1.2% to near $4,010 an ounce. Bitcoin held near $81,200.
Investor Signal
Friday's tape looked more like an inflation trade than a retreat. Oil, energy shares and yields rose together, while rate-sensitive utilities and homebuilders fell. The Fed decides on Oct. 28, and three Treasury auctions next week will test demand for bonds.
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Brent Topped $116, and Bonds Stopped Acting as a Haven
Brent crude rose about 3% to above $116 a barrel, capping a third straight weekly gain. U.S. crude gained about 4% to near $103.
Houthi forces said they attacked Saudi Arabia's Defense Ministry and Aramco facilities. No single event explains the move.
On Thursday, the 10-year Treasury yield fell 17 basis points even as oil climbed. On Friday, the two-year yield rose about 4 basis points to 4.69%, and the 10-year closed back at 5%.
Investor Signal
Oil and yields rising together fits an inflation shock better than a growth scare. Short-dated yields, the most sensitive to the Fed, rose as much as long-dated ones. The Treasury sells $183 billion of two-, five- and seven-year notes next week, around the Fed's decision. Weak demand at those sales would show buyers want more yield to hold bonds through an oil shock.
SLB Beat and Rose About 7%. Its Forecast Assumes the Middle East Stays Flat.
The companies that service oil wells collected Friday's gains. SLB (SLB) reported revenue of $9.45 billion, above the roughly $9.3 billion analysts expected. Adjusted earnings of 64 cents a share topped the 62-cent estimate. Shares rose about 7% to near $53.
Its fourth-quarter forecast of about $10 billion assumes Middle East revenue holds near $1.9 billion. Regional revenue grew 13% from the second quarter, yet holding it flat would still leave the region below its 2025 level, management said. Excluding the ChampionX acquisition, international revenue was flat from a year ago.
Halliburton (HAL) rose about 5%, Baker Hughes (BKR) about 4% and Chevron (CVX) about 3%. Exxon Mobil (XOM) touched a 52-week high.
Investor Signal
SLB set a low bar for its most exposed region, which leaves room for upside if the Gulf stabilizes. Its margins remain below last year's, and growth outside North America leans on the acquisition. The stock's jump cannot be separated from oil's. Middle East revenue in the fourth quarter will show whether the forecast was too cautious.
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Businesses Raised Prices at the Fastest Pace Since 2022. Households Expect More.
Higher fuel costs are already showing up in what companies charge. In S&P Global's flash October survey, prices charged for goods and services rose at the fastest pace since August 2022. The survey's compiler tied part of the pressure to the renewed rise in oil. The composite activity index eased to 57.6 from 58.4, still a fast pace of growth.
The University of Michigan's final October survey put long-run inflation expectations at 3.5%, up from 3.4% and above their 2024 range of 2.8% to 3.2%. Year-ahead expectations rose to 4.7%. Sentiment of 48.0 was the second-lowest on record. The survey's director, Joanne Hsu, warned that elevated expectations could become entrenched.
Investor Signal
Firms are busy and raising prices, while gloomy households expect those increases to last. Both point to inflation risk for the Fed. On Polymarket, the contract on an October hold slipped to 91.5 cents from 93.5, and December hike odds stood near 72.5%. Kalshi said it is developing futures on consumer prices aimed at banks and hedge funds. September's inflation reading on personal spending, due Oct. 29, is the next test.
Amex Cardholders Spent 8% More. The Stock Fell About 4%.
Consumer sentiment sits near a record low, but spending has held up so far. Billed business at American Express (AXP) rose 8% to $454.0 billion. Adjusted earnings of $4.68 a share beat the roughly $4.50 estimate, and revenue of $20.06 billion was in line.
Amex raised its 2026 forecast, but the adjusted range of $17.60 to $17.90 a share tops out where the old range did. It will also cut about 5% of its workforce, roughly 3,500 jobs, with a $336 million charge. Shares fell about 4% to near $313. Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) each fell about 1.5%.
Investor Signal
Investors sold a beat helped by a reserve release and buybacks, paired with a forecast whose ceiling did not rise. The declines at Visa and Mastercard suggest the selling reached the wider card group. A Truist analyst noted it would be the ninth decline after a beat in 11 quarters. Fourth-quarter billed business will show whether gloomy households start spending less.
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Robert Half's Staffing Business Grew for the First Time Since 2022
Busy firms are also adding staff, which feeds the same price picture. Robert Half (RHI) said revenue in its staffing business rose 2% on an adjusted basis, its first growth since 2022. Earnings of 49 cents a share beat estimates by 2 cents. Shares jumped about 22% to near $46.
The gain was narrow. Total revenue was flat at $1.359 billion, and the Protiviti consulting unit shrank about 3%. Its fourth-quarter forecast implies about 3% adjusted growth at the midpoint.
The flash survey pointed the same way. Employment grew at its fastest pace since June 2022 apart from September's jump, and factory payrolls rose at the quickest rate since March 2012.
Investor Signal
A turn in staffing, alongside strong survey hiring, suggests labor demand has not cooled as much as Thursday's bond rally suggested. Firms that keep hiring may have less reason to stop raising prices. Amex's cuts show not every employer is adding staff. Peers that report in coming weeks will show whether the turn is broad.
Thursday's bond rally looked like a bet on a slowdown. Friday's evidence pointed the other way: oil kept rising, companies raised prices and hired, and households expected more inflation. Yields rose across the curve.
Next week brings the Fed's decision, the largest cloud companies' spending plans and a fresh read on consumer prices. Together they will show whether a growth scare or an inflation shock sets borrowing costs.
Rates Just Reset. Who Feels It First?
On January 2, the 10-year Treasury yielded 4.19%. By September 30, it was 5.29%. Most of that move landed in a single quarter.
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Rates Just Reset. Who Feels It First?
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