Adjusted earnings of $4.68 a share topped estimates and the card issuer lifted its full-year range, while announcing a 5% workforce cut. Revenue was in line, and the higher GAAP forecast leans on a one-time gain.
American Express delivered the combination that usually lifts a stock: a profit beat, a higher forecast and a cost cut. Its shares fell anyway.
Revenue net of interest expense rose 9% to $20.06 billion in the third quarter, in line with the $20.12 billion analysts expected. Billed business, the value of spending on Amex cards, rose 8% to $454.0 billion. Net income jumped 28% to $3.71 billion, or $5.42 a share.
That reported figure includes a $982 million pretax gain from the sale of the company's GBTG stake, worth $1.11 a share after tax, and a restructuring charge of 37 cents a share after tax. Excluding both, adjusted earnings were $4.68 a share, up 13% from $4.14 a year earlier and above the $4.50 consensus estimate. Adjusted net income rose 11% to $3.21 billion.
Credit helped. Provisions for credit losses fell to $1.0 billion from $1.3 billion a year earlier, reflecting a reserve release this year against a reserve build last year. The net write-off rate edged down to 1.8% from 1.9%.
The forecast, read closely
Amex raised its 2026 earnings forecast to $18.30 to $18.60 a share on a reported basis, or $17.60 to $17.90 excluding the gain and the charge. The previous range was $17.30 to $17.90.
The reported range moved up mostly because of the travel-stake gain. The adjusted range lifts the floor, but its top, $17.90, is where the old range already ended. The old range had no adjusting items, so the comparison is not exact, but the effect is that the best case for the underlying business did not get better. The company reiterated its expectation of about 10% revenue growth.
"We're on track to deliver another year of 10 percent revenue growth," Chief Executive Stephen Squeri said.
The job cuts
Amex said it will cut about 5% of its global workforce and booked a $336 million restructuring charge. The company put the reduction at about 3,500 jobs. Chief Financial Officer Christophe Le Caillec described the aim as making the company leaner.
A pattern in the reaction
The stock was indicated about 1.3% lower before the open and extended its decline in regular trading, falling 3.9% to about $312 by early afternoon. Card and consumer-lending peers were also lower: Visa fell 1.4%, Mastercard 1.9%, Capital One 1.7% and Synchrony 2.5%, so part of the move was sector-wide.
Truist analyst Brian Foran noted that, if the decline holds, it would be the ninth time in 11 quarters that Amex shares have fallen after the company beat estimates.
Quality or momentum
The skeptical view is that the beat leaned on items that do not repeat: a reserve release, a lower share count from buybacks, and the gain that powers the reported forecast. Revenue, the line most tied to card spending, only matched expectations.
The constructive view is that the core business is doing what Amex promised. Spending grew 8%, write-offs fell, the company is still guiding to 10% revenue growth, and the job cuts should support margins next year.
What to watch
Billed-business growth in the fourth quarter, the path of credit reserves, and whether savings from the restructuring show up in 2027 expense guidance.