The exchange is courting banks and hedge funds for consumer-price futures it aims to launch in December. Robinhood says bitcoin, gold and oil contracts are among its fastest-growing markets.
Prediction markets built their volume on elections and sports. Their operators now want the business of professional investors.
Kalshi is pitching exchange-traded futures on the consumer price index and core CPI to banks and hedge funds, with the aim of launching them in December, Bloomberg News reported on Friday. Kalshi confirmed it is developing the product but did not give launch details. The exchange is positioning itself as a venue for trading inflation directly.
At Robinhood, contracts on bitcoin, gold and oil prices are among the fastest-growing prediction markets, company executive JB Mackenzie said at an industry conference this week.
From events to economics
Economic contracts are already active. On Friday, Kalshi's contract on a quarter-point Fed rate increase in October traded about 57,600 contracts by early afternoon, and Polymarket's contract on no change at the Oct. 28 meeting had about $1.25 million of trading in the 24 hours to early Friday. Prices on both had begun moving before Friday's data, which showed businesses raising prices at the fastest pace since 2022.
A CPI futures product aimed at institutions would go further. Banks and hedge funds already hedge inflation through Treasury inflation-protected securities and other established instruments. Kalshi's existing economic markets are binary contracts on single releases. Futures on CPI and core CPI would be a step closer to the instruments those firms already use, and a more direct bid for their business.
Regulators are watching the edges
The push comes as scrutiny of the industry widens. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission sent letters to two sports prediction platforms, Novig and ProphetX, concerning their sports markets. Ohio regulators have already issued cease-and-desist orders, and policymakers there are still debating how to treat the markets. Kalshi is also listing contracts on college admission rates at 22 colleges, and its answer to New Jersey's Supreme Court petition, No. 26-299, is due Nov. 9.
Why it matters
Moving into financial contracts could change the industry's regulatory argument. Platforms that list economic and price contracts look more like derivatives exchanges and less like sportsbooks, which strengthens their case for federal oversight rather than state gambling rules. It could also put them in more direct competition with established exchanges.
The risk is that institutions may not need a new venue. Existing inflation markets are deep, and a new contract has to attract enough liquidity to be useful for hedging.
What to watch
Any formal filing or launch date for Kalshi's CPI product, its Supreme Court filing on Nov. 9, and the next CPI release a day later.