The gap between the two platforms on the same politician nearly doubled to about 17 points in a day. The contracts ask slightly different questions, and the difference matters if Israel heads back to the polls.
Two prediction markets looked at the same Israeli coalition math on Friday and came to very different prices.
On Kalshi, the contract on whether Gadi Eisenkot becomes prime minister following this week's election fell from 25 cents to 17 cents, after trading as high as 27 cents early in the morning and as low as 16 cents around midday. Most of the selling came between 8 a.m. and noon Eastern. On Polymarket, the contract on whether Eisenkot will be Israel's next prime minister barely moved, at 33.75 cents.
The gap between the two platforms widened to about 17 points, from about 9 points on Thursday.
Netanyahu's contracts show the same split in reverse. Polymarket's rose 1.5 points to 41 cents. Kalshi's fell 1 point to 20 cents. That is a 21-point gap on the sitting prime minister.
The wording
The difference starts with the question. Kalshi asks who becomes prime minister following the 2026 election. Polymarket asks who will be the next prime minister, and its rules carry over to a repeat election if no government forms.
That distinction matters in Israel's current arithmetic. Netanyahu's bloc won 53 seats, the opposition bloc 48 and Arab-led parties 19, according to a Reuters tally, leaving neither side with an obvious path to 61. Avigdor Liberman restated on Friday his refusal to join any coalition that includes the Arab-led parties, a position he has held before. If traders see a growing chance that no government forms and Israel votes again, a contract tied to this election should fall further than one that rolls forward, and Friday's prices fit that pattern.
How much to read into it
The Kalshi move came on a modest tape: about 17,400 contracts, with the three largest trades all on the selling side, at 20, 17 and 16 cents. Polymarket's Eisenkot market is deeper, with about $170,000 of liquidity, but Polymarket is also reviewing trading in its Israel election markets.
What to watch
President Herzog receives the official results on Nov. 4. The new Knesset is sworn in on Nov. 10. Any public endorsement of Eisenkot by ultra-Orthodox parties or a shift by Liberman would test which market has it right.