Brent eased toward $115 early Tuesday. Whirlpool now sees a loss for the year. The FTC sued Dollar General over register prices that didn't match its shelves. Nvidia says it will put $3 billion into Meta's stock sale.
$1.22.
AAA says regular gas averaged $4.27 a gallon on Tuesday. Last October, it cost about $3.05. It has fallen about 21 cents in a month. Diesel's gap is wider. It costs about $6.35, up from about $3.66.
Gas is down for the month but has not closed the gap with last fall.
- Brent sat near $115 at 7 a.m., a bit under Monday's settle. Overnight it stayed inside Monday's range.
- The Fed's two-day meeting starts today, and it decides Wednesday. It raised rates in September. Polymarket's bet on no change rose about two cents overnight, to near 94 cents.
- At 1 p.m., $70 billion of five-year notes go on sale. At 1:40 p.m., the Treasury buys back up to $6 billion of long bonds, above its own $4 billion floor.
- Celestica (CLS)guided to about $40 billion of revenue next year, nearly double this year. By 6:50 a.m., its shares were up more than 15%.
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Gas Eased Again. Whirlpool Now Sees a Loss, and the FTC Sued Dollar General Over Register Prices.
Monday morning's PMD said the dip at the pump could last if Brent held below Friday's high. On Monday, Brent settled lower. Talks with Iran continued, and a late report of an Oct. 23 tanker strike in Hormuz surfaced. At the pump, gas slipped two more cents. Overnight, Brent stayed below Friday's high.
Two big household brands made news Monday. Whirlpool (WHR)now sees an adjusted loss for the year. It had forecast a profit. Sales fell 8.8% last quarter. Its margin fell on lower sales and higher costs, and it cited raw materials and fuel. Its release cites price hikes in North America this quarter. By 7 a.m., its shares were down about 8%.
The FTC and 20 states sued Dollar General, alleging shoppers paid more at the register than the shelf price. The company got more than 29,000 such complaints from early 2023 to March, the suit says. The company says it will fight the case. It warned that losing could hurt its results materially. A complaint is a claim, not a finding.
At 10 a.m., the Conference Board's confidence index gives U.S. households their next read. In France, household confidence hit its lowest level since 2013.
For Household Brands, the Price Tag Is the Test
One reading: with gas still well above last year, the price tag is where these brands get tested. Whirlpool is raising prices, and Dollar General's case turns on the price at the register. September's PCE prices come Thursday.
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SIGNAL 1: A Lender Is Testing Loans for Private Credit Holders Who Want Cash Before They Can Exit
Cox Capital is testing loans of up to 65% of a stake's value for holders of large non-traded BDCs. These funds lend to private firms. They cap how much holders can pull out each quarter. In September, the same firm offered to buy such shares at discounts of 12.5% to 17.5%.
New money still wants in. A new poll asked 500 big investors and advisers. Of those, 84% plan to add to private markets within two years. They ranked the ability to get out as a top need. A loan raises cash without a sale at a discount. It also adds leverage on top of a fund that already borrows.
WHAT RESOLVES THIS
Next comes how much holders ask to pull out of the largest funds this quarter. Listed managers report in the coming weeks, including Blue Owl on Thursday.
SIGNAL 2: Kakaku.com Trades Above Both Bids. It Asked EQT to Revisit Its Price.
Kakaku said on Tuesday it asked EQT to talk about changing its ¥3,682 price. On Monday, a rival group raised its proposed price to ¥3,700. Kakaku now treats that as a qualifying counteroffer. Bain Capital leads that group, and LY Corp. plans to invest in it. Kakaku said it still backs EQT's bid but leaves the choice to holders.
The shares closed at ¥3,760 in Tokyo, above both prices. Holders who tender to EQT would accept less than the market price. EQT's offer has risen six times since July, from ¥3,000. The Bain group says it expects to launch its tender in mid-November.
WHAT RESOLVES THIS
EQT's offer period ends Wednesday unless it is extended. If EQT does not match within 10 business days, Kakaku is released from backing it.
SIGNAL 3: Bitcoin and Gold Ranked Last This Year Through Friday, in One Table. Bitcoin Funds Took In $110 Million Monday.
Monday morning's PMD said Monday's flows would come first, then the Fed. Spot bitcoin funds in the U.S. took in a net $110 million or so on Monday, on published data. That ended two days of outflows, and all of it went to BlackRock's fund. Bitcoin slipped back under $80,000 overnight.
Through Oct. 23, bitcoin was down 7.3% this year and gold 7.5%. That made them the bottom two of 21 major assets in one strategist's table. Both are often bought to guard against war and rising prices, and this year has had both. One explanation is rates. Higher rates make an asset with no yield more costly to hold.
WHAT RESOLVES THIS
The Fed decides Wednesday. Coinbase and Strategy report Thursday, and bitcoin and ether options expire Friday.
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- Nvidia says it will put $3 billion into Meta's stock sale. Meta priced $37.5 billion of common and preferred stock overnight. The $25 billion of common is sold through forward contracts, so Meta gets that cash only when it settles them. It has until late next year.
- Apollo (APO) is buying 10% of Mubadala Capital, The National reported. Apollo's boss told the paper the check is "a little over a billion dollars." No valuation was given.
Private Market Trends Driving Public Market Moves
Waiting is a position, and it has a price.
At the pump, a month of waiting took about 21 cents off a gallon. Gas is still $1.21 above last year. Some BDC holders who cannot wait were offered discount buyouts, and now a pilot loan. Kakaku trades above both offers, a bet on more. One reading: money that can wait may set the terms for money that cannot.
On the calendar...
When
Event
Tue., Oct. 27
Fed meeting begins; Conference Board confidence, 10 a.m.; $70 billion five-year note sale, 1 p.m.; Treasury buyback, 1:40 p.m.; Israel's exit polls, 4 p.m.; Robinhood and Visa report
Wed., Oct. 28
Fed decision; Bank of Canada decision; EQT's Kakaku offer period ends; British budget; Microsoft and Alphabet report
Thu., Oct. 29
Q3 GDP and September PCE prices; ECB decision; seven-year note sale; Amazon, Coinbase, Strategy and Blue Owl report
Fri., Oct. 30
Exxon Mobil and Chevron report
Sun., Nov. 1
OPEC+ meeting
Tue., Nov. 3
U.S. midterm elections; Apollo reports
Rates Just Reset. Who Feels It First?
On January 2, the 10-year yielded 4.19%. By September 30, 5.29% — most of it in one quarter.
Some companies earn from higher rates. Some pay. Each runs on a different clock.
We traced three: IBKR, WRB and FIS. One has already reported. The other two report next, and the report tells you the exact line to check.
Free report, texted to your phone.