Diesel stayed lower after a truce Moscow has not confirmed. The bull market turns four with the 10-year near 5.24%. Event markets set a $22.2 billion weekly record earlier this month.
Monday's prices split on proof.
Some moved after announcements, and others waited for evidence.
S&P 500 futures edged up about 0.1% early Monday, and Nasdaq-100 futures slipped about 0.1%. On Friday, the S&P 500 rose 0.59% to 7,811.54, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.64%.
Cash Treasury markets are closed for Columbus Day. The 10-year yield stands at Friday's close near 5.24%. Brent traded near $106, above Friday's settlement. Heating oil fell about 1%. Gold slipped about 0.3% to near $4,202, and bitcoin traded near $83,400.
Korea's Kospi fell 3.65% as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix each lost more than 4%. Micron (MU) fell about 2% in early premarket trading.
The weekend ran on announcements.
The week runs on evidence.
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Oil gave two answers to a truce Moscow has not confirmed.
President Trump posted Sunday that an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine took effect immediately. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv would agree if Russia did. Hours after the post, Ukrainian officials reported Russian strikes on energy sites in Kyiv and Kharkiv. On Monday, Zelensky said Russia had violated the truce. The Kremlin said contacts on an energy truce were continuing. It did not confirm a deal or say whether it covers only refineries.
Brent fell more than 2% after futures reopened Sunday night, then climbed back above Friday's settlement. Heating oil, the U.S. diesel benchmark, stayed lower. Ukraine's drones have hit Russian refineries, which make diesel. A pause would add fuel long before it changed crude supply. On Friday, the president also said Russia would supply more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel. The International Energy Agency asked members to finish emergency releases faster, diesel first. Its board meets Oct. 15.
Crude had its own reasons to hold. A drone struck a tanker off Oman, outside the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also called the latest U.S. reply "insufficient." Goldman Sachs puts the risk premium in Brent at a little over $20 a barrel.
Diesel Stayed Down After a Post
Part of the diesel discount appears to rest on a truce Moscow has not confirmed. The Russian diesel deal and the IEA request landed the same weekend. Crude's premium rests on the Gulf, where attacks are spreading. If strikes on energy sites continue, the diesel discount could unwind quickly. Kremlin detail on scope and the IEA board's decision would show which price was right.
The bull market turned four on Monday with borrowing costs near the highest of its run.
The S&P 500 has gained more than 110% since its Oct. 12, 2022, low. Last week the 10-year yield reached levels last seen in 2002, and stocks still finished the week higher. Earnings have carried the load. Analysts expect third-quarter S&P 500 profits to rise 29.6% from a year earlier. Much of that growth is tied to AI data centers.
The banks go first. JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup report before Tuesday's open. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley follow Wednesday, the same morning as September's consumer price index. Economists expect core prices to rise 0.2%. With the cash bond market shut Monday, Treasuries get one cash session before the inflation report.
Profits Must Outrun Rates
Investors have accepted higher yields as long as profits rise faster. A 29.6% average leans heavily on technology and can hide strain elsewhere. Banks are where that strain would show first, in loan-loss provisions and card charge-offs. Steady credit would support the rally into its fifth year. Rising provisions would suggest 5% rates are reaching borrowers.
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Two bets carried premiums before the proof arrived.
Amazon is in talks to buy AI startup Decart for about $7 billion, The Wall Street Journal reported. The paper cited people familiar with the matter. That would be about 1.75 times Decart's valuation in May. Anthropic explored a deal for about $6 billion in August, Bloomberg reported. It walked away in September after due diligence. Neither Amazon nor Decart has confirmed an agreement. Decart's software lets developers move AI work between chips, and Amazon designs its own.
In crypto, Evernorth's XRP treasury company is set to begin trading on Nasdaq as XRPN on Monday. About 80% of eligible SPAC holders took their cash, roughly $195 million. The shares closed Friday about 61.5% above the $10.58 redemption price. XRP traded near $1.40, below the $1.43 reference price used at closing. U.S. spot bitcoin funds had net outflows of about $679 million last week.
Premiums Before Proof
Amazon would pay about $1 billion more than the last suitor explored. Evernorth holders who stayed passed up $10.58 a share in cash. Their shares track a token whose reference price fell about 39.5% from signing to closing. Both bets assume the asset is worth more inside the buyer than outside it. A signed Decart agreement and XRPN's first sessions would supply the first evidence.
Event markets set a $22.2 billion weekly record earlier this month, Dune Analytics data show.
The CFTC proposed Friday treating the contracts as swaps. A Polymarket contract paying if the U.S. does not strike Yemen by Oct. 31 rose to about 81 cents.
Volume Is Not Permission
Sports drove the record and the state fight. Swap status would strengthen the federal claim without ending it. The thin Yemen market implies about one-in-five odds of a U.S. strike.
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Monday split on proof.
Diesel stayed lower after a truce announced in a post. Crude waited for barrels, and two bets carried premiums before the evidence arrived. This week supplies the evidence. Bank results, the inflation report and any Kremlin detail on scope will show which prices were early and which were right.
Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.
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