Nvidia and Broadcom stepped into their customers' financing. Two governments are buying back longer-dated bonds, and Iran contracts priced the election calendar.
Stock futures edged higher early Tuesday as the Fed began its two-day meeting.
On Monday, the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite about 0.8%. The 10-year Treasury yield ended near 4.99%. Brent was near $115.10 early Tuesday after settling at $115.81. Gold was down about 0.4% overnight, near $4,021. Bitcoin and gold are 2026's two worst major assets. Through Oct. 23, bitcoin was down 7.3% and gold 7.5%. They ranked last among 21 asset classes in a table kept by Creative Planning's Charlie Bilello. Bitcoin was near $79,900 early Tuesday.
Futures barely moved.
Balance sheets did not.
The $16 Trillion Rare Earth Discovery
The Guardian calls it "the beginning of the biggest gold rush in history"... and one stock under $5 owns exclusive rights to harvest these rare earths.
Elon Musk and his companies need these minerals before a January 1 Pentagon deadline.
Chip suppliers stepped inside two big AI financings.
Meta priced $25 billion of common at $625, upsized, plus $12.5 billion of convertible preferred. Meta (META) raised the common sale from $22.5 billion. It sold the shares through forward contracts, so the cash arrives only when Meta settles them. The preferred pays a 6.5% dividend and delivers cash at closing on Oct. 29. Nvidia (NVDA) said it will invest $3 billion in the offering. The $625 price is 0.9% below Monday's close.
A new special purpose vehicle will buy Broadcom (AVGO) AI chips and networking gear and lease them to Anthropic. The $63 billion financing was announced Monday. Three banks are arranging the first-lien debt, and Blackstone (BX) is the sole committed provider of second-lien debt. Broadcom is providing residual value support equal to the first-lien portion. Pricing and the size of each layer were not disclosed. Anthropic filed publicly for an IPO the same day.
Suppliers on Both Sides
Nvidia, one of Meta's chip suppliers, is buying its stock. Broadcom supports the residual value of the chips it sells into Anthropic's lease. In both, the supplier shares the risk of the buildout. The undisclosed pricing of the lease financing will show what lenders charge for the remaining risk.
The market priced two deals before the bidders set final terms.
Bain's higher Kakaku.com bid won't launch before mid-November. A vehicle advised by Bain Capital and backed by LY Corp. raised its proposal to ¥3,700 a share on Monday. EQT's offer stands at ¥3,682, and its tender period ends Wednesday. On Tuesday, Kakaku asked EQT to discuss changing its price. The board still supports EQT's offer. Kakaku shares are near ¥3,760, above both bids.
DoorDash is reportedly in advanced talks to buy Instacart for about $17 billion. The Wall Street Journal and Reuters reported the talks Monday, citing people familiar with the matter. A deal could come as soon as this week, the Journal said. Neither company has confirmed the talks. DoorDash (DASH) fell 6.1%, losing about $4.7 billion of market value. Part of that drop came before the first report. Instacart rose 7.9%, adding about $1 billion.
The Market Moved First
Kakaku trades above both offers, a bet on a higher price. DoorDash lost more value than Instacart gained, with no terms announced. In both, the market priced the outcome before the terms were final. EQT's Wednesday deadline and any DoorDash announcement will show how close it came.
He predicted the 2008 financial crisis…
He predicted Trump’s election in 2016….
He even predicted the rise of COVID-19 writing:
“The chance we don’t have something on the scale of a national pandemic in the next few years is near zero”
That was three months before the first reported case.
If he’s right again, God Bless America…
Because this crisis will be tectonic in scale…and it's going to begin with the bubble popping in AI.
Two treasuries are buying back their own longer-dated bonds, one in a rout and one on schedule.
Brazil's Treasury spent about R$14.8 billion buying back bonds it had just stopped selling. It cancelled this week's fixed-rate and inflation-linked auctions. Then on Monday it bought back about R$7.1 billion of fixed-rate notes and R$7.7 billion of inflation-linked notes. The Ibovespa closed down 13.88%. The dollar ended at R$5.403, up 8.21%, after reaching R$5.6049. The January 2031 rate future still rose more than 2.5 percentage points. Flávio Bolsonaro dropped his plan to seek an annulment of the election.
Treasury is buying back up to $6 billion of long bonds today, above its own floor. The operation runs from 1:40 to 2 p.m. Eastern and covers bonds maturing from 2046 to 2056. Treasury calls it liquidity support. In August, it said long-end operations would be at least $4 billion each. The buyback follows a $70 billion five-year note auction at 1 p.m. The 30-year yield ended Monday near 5.30%.
Buying the Long End
Brazil bought its own bonds to steady a market in a selloff. Washington's purchase is part of a scheduled program. Both put a government on the buying side of its longer-dated debt. Brazil's long rates rose anyway, and the offers in today's U.S. operation will show how many holders want out.
Iran contracts priced the election calendar, and Fed hike bets faded on Kalshi with no new signal.
Iran ceasefire contracts rallied overnight. Polymarket's contract on the ceasefire holding through Oct. 31 rose to about 92.5 cents from 86.5 cents Monday afternoon. It climbed gradually after Monday's Tehran talks ended with an agreement to keep talking. Fewer days left for a strike likely explain part of it. The Oct. 28 contract was near 96.6 cents, Nov. 8 near 70 cents and Nov. 15 near 55.5 cents. The largest step falls between Oct. 31 and Nov. 8, spanning the Nov. 3 midterms. On Oct. 8, President Trump said the U.S. would not attack Iran before the midterms. The contracts turn No only on a qualifying U.S. strike on Iranian territory.
Kalshi's contract on a quarter-point Fed hike Wednesday rose Monday, then slipped overnight to 6 cents from 9 cents at the close. Polymarket's "no change" contract rose to about 93.7 cents overnight and was back near 92.5 cents by 7 a.m. No cause for either move has been identified.
Priced on the Calendar
The Iran contracts price Oct. 28 near 96.6 cents and Nov. 15 near 55.5 cents. The steepest drop spans the midterms, the line Trump drew on Oct. 8. Fed hike bets rose and faded on Kalshi with no Fed headline. Wednesday settles the Fed contracts, and Oct. 28 is the first Iran expiry.
Elon Musk Warns We May Have Just Months Left
"Frontier AI" is a point of no return when AI surpasses human intelligence and gains free will. Elon Musk warns this moment could hit by the end of 2026.
According to 60-year Wall Street legend, Marc Chaikin, Frontier AI could soon become the only thing that determines which companies make money and which grind to a halt, That's why he's giving away a list of stocks to buy and sell absolutely FREE to help you position your money for a world driven by Frontier AI technology.
Tuesday opens slightly higher with the Fed in session.
Chip suppliers stepped inside Meta's stock sale and Anthropic's chip lease. The market priced two deals before the bidders set final terms. Brazil bought back bonds, and Washington does so today. Iran contracts priced the calendar. The Fed decides Wednesday, and Big Tech reports Wednesday and Thursday.
Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.
Same Rate Move. Three Different Bills.
The 10-year went from 4.19% to 5.29% this year. Every company on your screen felt that. They don't feel it on the same schedule.
Some earn more when rates rise. Some pay more. The difference shows up in earnings, one report at a time.
We traced three of them: IBKR, WRB and FIS.
FREE Special Report: Rates Just Reset. Who Feels It First?
Who earns it fast. Who earns it slowly. Who pays. One has already reported. The other two report next, and the report tells you the exact line to check.
We'll text the report straight to your phone.