The contract gave back about two-fifths of its drop as Treasury yields turned higher. Polymarket's version traded within about a point of Kalshi's at the same hour.
Prediction Markets · FinancialMarkets.com · October 2, 2026 · Tickers: SHY, TLT, HOOD
The September jobs report took less than two minutes to reach prediction markets.
Kalshi's contract that pays out if the Fed raises rates by a quarter point on Oct. 28 traded between 27 and 28 cents from early Friday morning until the 8:30 a.m. Eastern release. The last trade before the data printed at 28 cents at 8:23 a.m.
Within seven seconds of the release, it had traded at 27, 25 and then 24 cents, with about 2,700 contracts changing hands in one second. At 8:31:53 a.m., it reached 13 cents, the low of the day.
The rebound
The contract recovered in steps. It traded around 14 to 15 cents by 8:35 a.m., 16 cents at 8:40 and 17 cents from 8:50, including a single print of about 13,900 contracts at 17 cents. It held near 16 to 17 cents through late morning, touched 20 cents at 12:53 p.m. and last traded at 19 cents at 1:53 p.m.
From 28 to 13 is a drop of 15 cents. The climb to 19 recovered 6 of them, about two-fifths.
The contract for no change at the meeting moved the other way. It traded between 72 and 76 cents before the release, reached 86 cents at 8:38 a.m. and was at 82 cents at 2:08 p.m. At nearby times, the hike and hold contracts summed to about 101 cents, within the spread. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts.
Two venues, one price
Polymarket's October contract for a quarter-point increase traded at 16.5 cents at 9:19 a.m., with bids at 16 and offers at 17. Its no-change contract was at 83.5 cents. Kalshi's equivalent contracts were near 16 to 17 cents and 83 to 84 cents at the same hour. Before the release, Polymarket had priced the increase near 24.5 cents.
Against other measures
Futures-based estimates of an October increase ranged from about 16% to about 22% during the day, as measured at different times. Kalshi's afternoon 19 cents sits inside that range.
What coincided with the rebound
The afternoon recovery had no identifiable trigger. It coincided with Treasury yields reversing. The 10-year fell to about 5.16% after the report and climbed back to about 5.28% by early afternoon, higher on the day.
"I don't think this report necessarily changes the story for the Fed," said Timothy Chubb, chief investment officer at Girard.
The December question
The October contract pays only on an October increase. A December move resolves it as no change. Kalshi's December contract traded around 65 cents, which leaves the market pricing a later increase rather than none.
Two readings
One reading is that the October contract has now priced the labor market and will move next on inflation, with September consumer prices due in mid-October.
A second reading is that the retrace from 13 to 19 cents shows traders reluctant to give up on October entirely while long yields rise, and that the contract remains sensitive to any hawkish remark from officials.
Next week
Fed speakers on Tuesday, including Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, who said Thursday the target range needs to rise another 50 basis points or more, are the next inputs. The September CPI report is the larger one.