A prediction-market contract on the blockade lifting by fell six points overnight to 18.5 cents as rhetoric hardened and attacks on shipping continued.
Bettors are growing less confident that the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz will be resolved before the end of the month.
On Polymarket, the contract asking whether the blockade ends by fell to 18.5 cents from 24.5 cents, implying the odds of an end this month dropped to about 18.5% from 24.5%. Most of the decline came between 3 a.m. and 4 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday.
The move coincided with a hardening of rhetoric and continued violence at sea. President Donald Trump said matters would be settled "the nice way or the not-so-nice way." Vice President JD Vance demanded that Iran cut its uranium enrichment. Iran has stepped up attacks on vessels in the strait, and at least 12 tankers were struck between and . Maritime authorities have logged nine incidents in the area so far in October.
No announcement on the blockade itself accompanied the drop, so the market appears to be pricing the accumulation of signals rather than a single event.
A split with the physical market
The contract's slide stands in contrast to signs that oil is finding other routes. Saudi Arabia said Tuesday that its East-West pipeline, which bypasses Hormuz, is again carrying about 5.8 million barrels a day. Brent crude, however, traded near $101.70 a barrel early Wednesday, still above $100.
That combination tells a coherent story. Workarounds are reducing the immediate supply shortfall, but traders see little near-term prospect of normal passage through the strait. A contract at 18.5 cents says the market thinks a resolution this month is possible but unlikely.
What to watch
Any diplomatic movement between Washington and Tehran would hit this contract first. A move back above 25 cents would signal that traders see an opening; a fall toward 10 cents would suggest the disruption is being priced well into November.