Palver and Indexa joined Wednesday's Quaest survey in showing Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly ahead of Lula but not clear of the margin of error. The Polymarket price on a Flávio win fell nearly 6 cents on Thursday, and almost half of the drop came in an hour with no new poll.
Prediction markets on Brazil's Oct. 25 presidential runoff are moving toward what the polls have been saying. They are moving slowly, and not always when the polls come out.
Polymarket's contract on a Flávio Bolsonaro victory traded at 82.7 cents at 5 a.m. Eastern on Thursday and at 76.85 cents at 1:45 p.m. A price of 82.7 cents implies odds of nearly 5-to-1 in his favor; 76.85 cents implies about 3.3-to-1, by this publication's arithmetic. Twenty-four hours before the morning reading, the same contract had been near 86 cents.
The new surveys
Two polls released Thursday morning agree with the one released Wednesday evening: Flávio is ahead by a point or two, inside the statistical error band.
Palver, published at about 6 a.m. Eastern, put Flávio on 50% and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on 49%, with 1% blank or null. It surveyed 5,000 people online between Oct. 10 and Oct. 13, with an error band of 2.3 points either way. In the first round, Palver's last survey showed Flávio up 47% to 43%; the official count was 47.03% to 45.16%.
Indexa, out about three hours later, had Flávio on 44% and Lula on 42%, or 51% to 49% once only valid votes are counted. Its 2,000 phone interviews ran Oct. 13 and Oct. 14, with an error band of 2.2 points. Each candidate was rejected outright by about half of respondents: 51% for Flávio, 50% for Lula.
When the price moved
The decline came in two steps. The first, 2.45 cents, came in the hour after Palver's release, taking the price to 80.3 cents at 7 a.m. The price then held near 79.5 cents through the morning, including the hour when Indexa came out.
The second step, 2.85 cents, came between 11 a.m. and noon, when no poll, debate or major campaign event appeared. It took the price to 76.9 cents. That hour accounts for nearly half of the day's decline, which makes it hard to argue that the polls alone are moving the market.
What the gap measures
Three surveys from three firms, using online and phone methods, all show a race within the margin. A price implying 3-to-1 odds still assigns Flávio a clear edge. The difference is the market's bet on factors the polls may not capture, such as turnout.
The first round offers a caution for both camps. Palver had Flávio's share almost exactly right at 47%, but it understated Lula's by about two points, and the final gap was under 2 points rather than the 4 it showed. A pollster that was accurate on Flávio and low on Lula now shows a 1-point race.
That gap between price and polls has narrowed this week. It has not closed.
Market implications
One reading is that the market is catching up. Three independent polls in a day describe something close to even odds, and a price above 75 cents remains difficult to square with them.
The other is that traders have reasons to stay with the favorite. Flávio leads in each of the new surveys, his first-round share matched Palver's final poll, and part of Thursday's decline may reflect positioning before the next major poll rather than a change in view.
What to watch
Datafolha releases a poll Thursday evening, followed by a televised debate on Sunday, an AtlasIntel survey on Monday and a second debate on Oct. 23. A Datafolha result with Lula ahead would test whether the price falls through 75 cents.