Polymarket's Oct. 22 contract rose to about 97.6 cents hours before expiry, implying traders do not expect the explosions to count as a U.S. strike. A corrected timeline shows Wednesday's selloff coincided with the first reports.
A day after explosions in southern Iran knocked Polymarket's ceasefire contracts sharply lower, the ladder had recovered about half of the drop, and the contract expiring Thursday was trading as though the blasts will not change its outcome.
The shortest-dated contract, which pays if the truce holds through Thursday, climbed to 97.55 cents by midday from 95.3 cents at 5 a.m. Eastern. A brief dip to 92.3 cents at 9 a.m., matched by small drops across the ladder, had reversed by noon. Further out, prices were little changed on the day, ranging from 86.5 cents for the Saturday expiry to 28 cents for the year-end contract, with the end-of-October contract at 73.5 cents.
The event drew about $2.68 million of trading over 24 hours, with roughly $599,000 of liquidity on the books.
A correction to Wednesday's timeline
Earlier accounts placed the first report of explosions near Sirik at about 3:26 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday and treated the 2 p.m. to 3 p.m. leg of the ladder's decline as unexplained. Reports from Iranian news agencies actually began earlier, at about 2:36 p.m. to 2:47 p.m., saying blasts had been heard and that their nature and origin were unknown.
That changes the reading of Wednesday's selloff. With the first reports now placed inside the 2 p.m. to 3 p.m. hour, the decline coincided with the news rather than appearing to run ahead of it. Hourly prices cannot show the exact minute selling began.
What settlement depends on
The contracts settle "no" only if a U.S. strike hits Iranian territory before a deadline. The only public attribution so far comes from Israeli television. Neither U.S. military officials nor Iran's government has publicly said what caused the blasts. A price of 97.55 cents on Thursday's contract suggests traders see little chance of an official finding that would make Sirik count.
The deadline itself is ambiguous: one minute before midnight Iran time, or about 4:29 p.m. Eastern, under the written rules, but one minute before midnight Eastern on the contract listing. Contracts that settle cannot be reopened, but a later confirmation would affect every expiry still open.
No cliff after the election
The ladder does not show a break around the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Translated into a daily rate, the implied risk of a qualifying strike runs at roughly 2% to 2.6% a day between each pair of expiries from Oct. 24 through Nov. 30. That is a steady decline, not a drop after the vote.
That is notable because of the reported timetable. The New York Times reported, citing unnamed officials, that U.S. and Israeli planners have drawn up options for strikes after the election, and President Trump told reporters late Wednesday that "most people seem to think it's after the election." Traders are pricing a persistent risk rather than a dated one.
What to watch
Settlement of Thursday's contract, the Saturday expiry, and any official U.S. or Iranian account of Sirik.