Brent climbed back above $105 after a ceasefire Moscow has not confirmed. The bull market turns four with the 10-year yield near 5.24%. Holders of about 80% of the SPAC's public shares cashed out before an XRP treasury's first day of trading.
The bull market turns four with yields at the top of its run, and the banks report first.
The rally that began Oct. 12, 2022, has lifted the S&P 500 more than 110%. The 10-year Treasury yield ended near 5.24%, after touching levels last seen in 2002.
Earnings growth has run alongside the climb. Analysts expect third-quarter profits for the index to grow 29.6%, FactSet data show.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C) report before Tuesday's open.
In Seoul, the Kospi fell 3.65% overnight, and Samsung Electronics and SK hynix each lost more than 4%. Micron Technology (MU) traded more than 2% lower before the open.
S&P 500 futures were little changed. The cash bond market is closed for Columbus Day.
Profits Have to Outrun the Rate
For four years profits have grown alongside the climb. Now the cost of money sits at the top of the run, and the profit forecast is the margin. Tuesday's bank results put the first numbers on who is absorbing higher borrowing costs.
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Diesel stayed lower after the ceasefire post. Crude did not.
President Trump posted Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an "ENERGY CEASEFIRE." Kyiv said it would comply if Moscow did, then reported Russian strikes on power plants. The Kremlin said only that contacts were continuing.
Crude erased its drop on Trump's "energy ceasefire." Brent fell more than 2% below Friday's settlement after futures reopened Sunday night. Early Monday it traded near $106, its highest since late September.
Heating oil, the diesel benchmark, was down less than 1%. Ukraine's drones have hit Russian refineries, the diesel end of the barrel.
Mr. Trump also announced a Russian diesel deal on Friday. The IEA's chief urged faster diesel releases before the agency's board meets Thursday.
Tanker attacks have spread beyond the Strait of Hormuz. A drone struck a tanker at Oman's Sohar anchorage, outside the strait, the UK's maritime agency said. Iran called Washington's reply on reopening Hormuz "insufficient."
A Truce Still on Paper
Diesel stayed below Friday's price after a truce that exists, so far, as a post, a Russian supply deal and the IEA's push. Crude rose anyway, with attacks now reaching past the strait itself. Until Moscow describes the deal, part of the diesel discount rests on an announcement. Thursday's IEA meeting is the next dated test for fuel.
The dollar kept its height as traders pared bets on an October hike.
The dollar index sat near 102.2 early Monday, close to an 18-month high set last week. Futures put the chance of an October hold above 80%, CME's FedWatch tool showed.
FXStreet estimated last week that the euro accounted for about three-fifths of the index's rise since Sept. 9. September consumer prices land Wednesday.
An attack on Riyadh's airport claimed by Yemen's Houthis killed 12 people Saturday, Saudi authorities said. Mr. Trump said the U.S. "may" join Saudi retaliation.
Traders raised the odds the U.S. stays out of Yemen. Polymarket's Oct. 31 line on the U.S.-Yemen ceasefire holding traded near 81 cents. That puts a U.S. strike before November near one in five. The line has drawn under $80,000 of trading.
A Harbor Without a Hike
The dollar held near its high as October hike bets faded, with the euro doing much of the lifting. A thin market prices Washington staying out of Yemen. Wednesday's inflation print tests which force steers the dollar now.
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Two prices moved ahead of their paperwork.
Amazon (AMZN) is in talks to buy Decart for about $7 billion, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday. Neither company has confirmed a deal, and Reuters could not verify the report.
Decart's software helps developers switch between AI chips. It was valued near $4 billion in May, so the reported price is about 1.75 times that mark. Anthropic explored a deal near $6 billion in August. It walked away in September after due diligence, Bloomberg reported.
Kalshi and Polymarket traded a record $22.2 billion in the week ended Oct. 4, Bloomberg reported. Dune Analytics data showed daily records on Oct. 3 and 4, together $8.56 billion.
On Friday the CFTC proposed defining event contracts as swaps. PYMNTS said the label would strengthen operators' case for federal rules. It added that one appeals court has held swap status alone would not override state gambling laws.
Paperwork Behind the Price
Amazon's reported price sits well above Decart's May mark, after one suitor examined the books and left. Event markets drew record money before their legal label is settled. Only a signed deal and a final rule fix either one.
Bitcoin sat still overnight as a listed XRP company and a bitcoin-backed bank loan arrived.
Bitcoin traded near $83,100 early Monday, after a night in a range of under 1.5%. Ether held near $2,540. Last week, U.S. spot bitcoin funds lost about $680 million, SoSoValue data showed.
Evernorth's first day as XRPN is Monday. Holders of about 80% of the SPAC's public shares took their cash first. They redeemed about $195 million, at roughly $10.58 a share.
The shell closed Friday at $17.09, more than 60% above the redemption price. Evernorth says it holds about 473 million XRP, worth about $660 million at Monday's price.
A South Korean bank has started lending won against bitcoin. Jeonbuk Bank made a corporate loan backed by bitcoin, local reports said. The coins stay with registered crypto custodians.
Court rules in effect since Oct. 1 let a lender ask a court to sell pledged crypto. Maeil Business described a single pilot loan, with no rate disclosed.
Wrappers and Court Orders
Neither new route asks anyone to buy a coin. Evernorth packs XRP inside a listed share, and most public SPAC shares were cashed out first. Jeonbuk lends against bitcoin without holding it, leaning on a courtroom. Last week's fund outflows show the established route running the other way.
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Monday's prices rest on announcements more than receipts.
The ceasefire has a post but no Kremlin confirmation. Amazon has talks, and the CFTC a proposal.
The receipts start with the banks Tuesday, consumer prices Wednesday and the IEA board Thursday.
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