SK hynix booked half its 2027-28 capacity and plans about $75 billion of returns. Robinhood's event contracts passed crypto.
Stock futures were mixed early Wednesday, hours before the Fed's decision.
S&P 500 futures were up about 0.1%, Nasdaq-100 futures about 0.4% and Dow futures down about 0.2%. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 rose 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite 1.2%. The 10-year Treasury yield ended near 4.99%. Oil is back above $100. U.S. crude was near $101.70 early Wednesday, and Brent near $115 after settling at $113.88. Saudi Arabia has not confirmed Tuesday's Houthi claim of a strike on its Ras Tanura refinery. The Wall Street Journal reported a new warning to Gulf states. It said Washington told them to prepare for a short, intense Iran campaign after the Nov. 3 midterms. The bet on a Fed hike fell to a nickel. Bitcoin was near $81,400.
Oil rose overnight.
The Fed has the afternoon.
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A memory maker booked into 2028 is paying its owners.
SK hynix beat on operating profit by about $4.7 billion. Operating profit was 83.3 trillion won, an 80% margin, up from 11.4 trillion a year earlier. Revenue rose 328% to 104.6 trillion won. It said its DRAM and HBM output is effectively sold out through 2029. It sees shortages through 2030. Long-term deals with 14 customers cover more than half its capacity for 2027 and 2028.
It plans about $75 billion of shareholder returns this year, including an August buyback. It still expects much higher investment next year. Currency and investment swings cut net profit 58% from the second quarter, the company said. The shares rose about 11% in Seoul. China's CXMT plans limited HBM3E output within two months at yields as low as 20%, sources told Reuters.
Seagate and Teradyne both beat and guided above forecasts. Seagate's revenue rose 61% to $4.23 billion. Teradyne (TER) grew revenue 70% to $1.31 billion, but its guidance midpoint is flat with the third quarter. Both stocks were indicated about 3% lower early Wednesday.
Contracts In, Cash Out
Suppliers are taking risk at one end of the chain and taking cash off the table at the other. Nvidia said this week it would put $3 billion into Meta's stock sale. SK hynix has half of two years' capacity under contract and is returning about $75 billion. Teradyne's flat guidance is the counterweight, and Big Tech reports after Wednesday's close.
Pension-backed buyers lined up for the steady pieces of two companies.
Warburg Pincus topped Ingenia's rival bidder by pre-selling two of its businesses. Warburg raised its non-binding proposal for the Australian group to A$5.45 a security in cash. With a distribution of up to 5 cents, that is 10 cents above AVID Property Group's proposal. Discovery Parks would take the holiday parks business, and LDR Capital the gardens business. Discovery Parks is backed by the superannuation fund Australian Retirement Trust. Ingenia gave AVID until Nov. 1 to match. Its securities closed at A$5.26.
BCE is selling half of its cell towers to a pension fund for C$2.45 billion. La Caisse, the Quebec pension investor, will buy 49.9% of a new company that owns more than 5,000 Bell wireless sites. Bell keeps control and will lease capacity on the towers. The price values the tower business at about C$4.9 billion. Lease terms were not disclosed.
Pieces for Patient Money
Warburg pre-sold two Ingenia businesses to a retirement-fund-backed operator and a family office. BCE sold half its towers to a pension investor and kept control. In both, long-term money is paying for the steady parts of a larger company. AVID's Nov. 1 deadline and BCE's lease terms will show what each side gave up.
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One fuel shock reached two central banks, and Europe's lenders were already pulling back.
New Zealand held rates by one vote when markets expected a hike. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand voted 4-3 to keep its cash rate at 2.75%. All members said tighter policy is likely to be required. Half an hour earlier, Australia's monthly inflation rose to 4.3% in September from 4.0%. Fuel prices jumped 9.4% in the month. Australia's central bank decides on Nov. 3.
Europe's banks are tightening credit into Thursday's ECB meeting. A net 9% of euro-area banks tightened standards for business loans in the third quarter, the ECB's lending survey showed. Loan demand fell, "driven mainly by higher interest rates." Demand for loans to finance AI infrastructure kept rising.
Waiting Has a Price
New Zealand chose to wait while saying it may need to act. Australia's faster inflation makes waiting harder there. Europe's banks are tightening credit as the ECB meets. The Bank of Canada decides at 9:45 a.m., the Fed at 2 p.m. and the ECB on Thursday.
Event contracts passed crypto at Robinhood, and Israel's count split the two biggest venues.
Robinhood now earns more from prediction markets than from crypto. Robinhood (HOOD) said third-quarter revenue rose 12% to a record $1.42 billion. Event-contract revenue rose more than sixfold to $173 million. Crypto revenue fell 55% from a year earlier to $120 million, though up about 20% from the second quarter. Net income fell 14%. The stock was indicated about 8% lower early Wednesday.
Israel's count put Netanyahu's bloc ahead, and Polymarket swung to him. Partial results leave Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc short of the 61 seats needed for a majority. His Polymarket contract rose from about 23 cents before polls closed to above 50 cents overnight. It was near 45 cents by 6 a.m. Gadi Eisenkot's fell to about 26 cents. On Kalshi, whose contracts settle on government formation, "No one" was near 57 cents.
Rules Set the Price
Robinhood's event contracts now out-earn the crypto line that built its last boom. In Israel, the venues price different questions, so a long stalemate could pay differently on each. Neither prices nor partial counts are results. The final count, and Coinbase's results on Thursday, come next.
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Futures are mixed with the Fed due at 2 p.m.
SK hynix is booked and paying out, while Seagate and Teradyne fell on beats. Long-term money lined up for Ingenia and Bell's towers, and New Zealand waited. Event contracts passed crypto at Robinhood, and Israel's venues priced the count by different rules.
Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.
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