Two governors and a major party federation endorsed the candidate ahead of the runoff. The first runoff polls land Thursday.
Brazil's center-right spent Tuesday consolidating behind Flávio Bolsonaro, and the prediction markets that track the presidential runoff moved to price him as a heavy favorite.
Former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado and current Governor Daniel Vilela formally endorsed Bolsonaro at an event in Goiânia. The federation of the Progressistas party and União Brasil also backed him, unanimously according to Senator Tereza Cristina. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre is staying with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, while the PSD party is remaining neutral.
On Polymarket, the contract on Bolsonaro winning rose to 84.95 cents from 84.35 cents, implying roughly an 85% probability. On Kalshi, the equivalent contract swung more widely, falling from 87 cents to 83 cents on Tuesday afternoon before recovering to 85 cents early Wednesday. The two venues have converged near the same level.
Financial markets had already priced a shift. The Ibovespa stock index jumped 7.70% on Monday to a record 206,912, its first close above 200,000, while the Brazilian real strengthened 4.21% to about 4.99 per dollar. On Tuesday the index held those gains, ending virtually flat at 206,755, and the real firmed further to about 4.98 per dollar early Wednesday.
Holding a one-day repricing of that scale for a second session is a meaningful signal: it suggests investors are not treating Monday's move as a fleeting reaction.
The economy beneath the rally
The rally is happening against weak activity data. Brazil's composite purchasing managers' index fell to 47.4 from 49.1, and the services index slipped to 49.2 from 50.5, both below the 50 level that separates growth from contraction.
What to watch
The first runoff polls are the immediate test of the 85% pricing. Datafolha and PoderData publish Thursday, AtlasIntel on Friday and Ipespe on Saturday. A poll that shows a close race would leave both the prediction-market contracts and the Ibovespa exposed. The runoff is .