The business of prediction markets has a crowded October calendar, and the first date on it passed quietly.
A Commodity Futures Trading Commission action on trading incentive programs, which had been expected this week, had not been posted on the agency's website by Friday afternoon. The most recent release was dated Oct. 1 and concerned an unrelated matter. Three CFTC rulemakings, including an interim final rule, remain under review at the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs.
The incentives
Volume incentive programs pay or rebate traders for activity, and the CFTC's review of them is the action that had been expected. Kalshi's Volume Incentive Program can end as soon as Oct. 13. Any CFTC action would bear on how venues attract liquidity.
The courts
The Supreme Court has set responses in prediction-market cases. Filings in case 26-338 are due Oct. 14 and in 26-344 on Oct. 15, in disputes that have split federal appeals courts. A response in 26-299 is due Nov. 9. The cases involve state efforts to regulate event contracts.
The election
The Nov. 3 midterms close out the fall calendar. Friday's report was the last jobs report before the election, with the October data due Nov. 6. On Oct. 1, Polymarket priced Democratic control of the House at about 93% and of the Senate at about 63%, and Kalshi at about 91.6% and about 64%.
Dates
Oct. 13 for Kalshi's incentive program, Oct. 14 and 15 for Supreme Court filings, and Nov. 3 for the midterms are the fixed dates. A CFTC release or an OIRA conclusion could arrive at any time.