Anthropic is aiming to begin trading before Thanksgiving, with a roadshow that could start the week of Nov. 9, according to people familiar with the plans. The contracts settle only when shares are listed and open for trading.
A prediction market built around Anthropic's stock-market debut now has a target date to trade against.
Anthropic is targeting a mid-November initial public offering, according to people familiar with the plans. A roadshow could begin the week of Nov. 9, and trading could start before Thanksgiving on Nov. 26. The listing had earlier been expected in October.
What the contracts said first
Polymarket runs a ladder of contracts on whether Anthropic lists by a series of dates. In early Thursday trading, before the November plan surfaced, the "Yes" side traded at:
- Oct. 15: 0.65 cent
- Oct. 31: 3.9 cents
- Nov. 15: 26.5 cents
- Nov. 30: 60.5 cents
- Dec. 15: 74.5 cents
- Dec. 31: 79 cents
The ladder implies about 34 cents of probability on a listing between Nov. 15 and Nov. 30, the gap between those two contracts. It also leaves about 21 cents on no listing by the end of the year.
The settlement test
The wording matters. Each contract resolves "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange "and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date." If Anthropic is acquired by a company that is already public, the market resolves "No" immediately.
A roadshow starting the week of Nov. 9 does not resolve anything by itself. Shares have to trade. A roadshow that begins that week would leave only a few days before Nov. 15 for pricing and a first trade, so the Nov. 15 contract depends on a compressed schedule. Trading before Thanksgiving would fall inside the Nov. 30 window.
The context
Anthropic's valuation and its competitive position are drawing attention from several directions this week. Google released Gemini 4 Argon on Wednesday at an introductory price below what analysts list for Anthropic's Claude Opus 5.5. The Federal Trade Commission confirmed an inquiry into AI developers, including OpenAI and Anthropic, the same day.
Two readings
One reading is that the November timing should lift the Nov. 30 contract above its early-Thursday 60.5 cents, since trading before Nov. 26 falls inside its window.
A second reading is that the ladder already priced most of it. A November listing was the market's central case before word of the November plan, and a schedule that has slipped once before leaves the December contracts carrying real weight.
What would move it
A public registration statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission would be the first hard marker, since it typically precedes a roadshow. The launch of the roadshow itself, and then a pricing date, would set which contract on the ladder resolves first.