Oracle regained about three-quarters of Thursday's loss. Delta cut its profit forecast, expecting fuel to cost about $6 billion more this year. Phone carriers fell 10% to 13% after SpaceX agreed to buy airwaves.
Buyers Came Back. Money Still Costs More.
By early Friday afternoon, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were each up about half a percent.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 5.25%, near its highest since 2002. The University of Michigan's sentiment index fell to 46.3 from 48.1 in September. The record low, 44.8, was set in May of this year.
Investor Signal
Buyers and lenders are still willing to fund growth. The price of that money is what keeps climbing. Waymo's loan spread, Delta's fuel bill and household inflation fears all landed this week. September CPI on Oct. 14 will show whether that price climbs further.
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Oracle Won Back Most of Thursday's Loss. Lenders Had Already Committed.
Oracle (ORCL) traded near $141.75 early Friday afternoon, up about 4.6%.
It fell 5.6% on Thursday after a report put OpenAI's September revenue pace near $50 billion. Friday's gain won back about three-quarters of that drop.
Overnight, Bloomberg reported that OpenAI expects to reach or exceed $70 billion in annualized revenue by year-end, citing people familiar with the matter. OpenAI did not comment.
The two figures need not conflict. Thursday's $50 billion was a September run rate, and the $70 billion is a year-end target. Hitting it would take a run rate about 40% higher in three months.
Lenders had committed earlier in the week. Waymo, the self-driving unit of Alphabet (GOOGL), closed a $5 billion term loan, its first debt. PIMCO, Blackstone and Sixth Street led a group of 13 named lenders.
Bloomberg reported Tuesday that Waymo had raised the loan from a target of more than $3 billion. It priced at 5.25 percentage points over the benchmark rate, Bloomberg said.
Investor Signal
Thursday asked whether AI revenue can carry AI debt. Friday's tape gave a partial yes with Oracle up, and lenders had already given Waymo more than it first sought. The cost of that credit has not eased. A spread above five points adds a sizable interest bill to a business still spending to grow. OpenAI's year-end run rate and Oracle's next quarterly report, which could size its OpenAI backlog, are the firmer tests.
The Carriers' Early Losses Deepened in Regular Trading.
T-Mobile (TMUS) was down about 13% early Friday afternoon. AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) were each down about 10%, after adjusting for dividends that went ex on Friday.
Verizon was headed for its worst day since 2002, CNBC reported.
[SpaceX (SPCX) agreed Thursday to buy nationwide 800 MHz airwaves](https://www.financialmarkets.com/article/t-mobile-sold-its-800-mhz-airwaves-in-august-spacex-agreed-to-buy-them-next-and-) from Grain Management. People familiar with the deal put the price near $8 billion. It needs FCC approval. SpaceX has disclosed no rollout plan or pricing.
Tower owners rose. Crown Castle (CCI) gained about 12% and American Tower (AMT) about 7%.
Investor Signal
The carriers' lost value now runs several times the reported price of the airwaves. The tower rally points to the other side, since a ground network needs towers. SpaceX is also in early talks to raise about $40 billion for Nvidia chips. Apollo, which is expected to lead that financing, is also among Waymo's lenders. FCC approval and the carriers' third-quarter reports later this month are the next tests.
Elon Musk's $2.1 Trillion Hit List
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Delta's Customers Kept Flying. Its Fuel Bill Rose Faster.
Delta Air Lines (DAL) cut its 2026 profit forecast Friday to $5.10 to $5.60 a share, from $6.50 to $7.50. It expects to absorb a $6 billion rise in fuel costs this year.
Third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.72 a share missed analysts' average estimate of $1.75, per LSEG. It was Delta's first miss in two years, CNBC said. A year earlier, Delta earned $1.70. Delta expects fourth-quarter revenue to grow about 20%.
Delta paid an average $3.61 a gallon for fuel in the third quarter, up 60%, its earnings release showed. Its fourth-quarter outlook assumes about $4.25 a gallon. The stock was down about 1% early Friday afternoon.
The supply picture now depends on which count is right. The president describes record flows through Hormuz. Ship tracking shows crude flows down about 27%. As of Thursday, Hurricane Isaias had shut in about 63% of Gulf of Mexico oil output.
Investor Signal
Fares can recover fuel costs, but with a lag, and the guidance cut suggests fares are not keeping pace. The same fuel prices are lifting household inflation expectations, the number the Fed watches. Whether Isaias damages Gulf refineries or only pauses platforms will help decide whether Delta's fuel assumption holds.
A Fed Hawk Set a Window. Households Raised Their Inflation Guess.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said rates ought to rise further "in the next six to nine months." He tied that to returning inflation to 2% within about 18 months. He would not commit to the Oct. 27-28 meeting, and he does not vote this year.
Household data leaned his way Friday. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7% from 4.6% in the University of Michigan survey, the highest since May of this year. The survey said that "substantially exceeds" the 3.4% seen in February, before the Iran conflict began.
Kalshi's October hike contract rose to 18 cents overnight, then slipped back to about 15 cents by early afternoon. Britain's 10-year gilt yield touched about 5.53% on Thursday, the highest since 2007.
Investor Signal
Musalem's window fits what futures already price, a hold in October and a move by December. Rising household inflation expectations could pull that timing forward. A loan priced over a benchmark rate, as Bloomberg reported Waymo's is, would cost more with each hike. September CPI on Oct. 14 will show whether October comes back into play.
Could This Stock Be “Trump’s Next Big Buy”?
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Crypto Funds Have Lost Nearly $1 Billion in Six Sessions.
U.S. spot bitcoin and ether funds have lost about $986 million in October. Bitcoin funds lost about $407 million and ether funds about $579 million. In September, bitcoin funds took in about $2.65 billion.
Fidelity's bitcoin fund made up about 81% of the day's $244 million in bitcoin fund withdrawals. BlackRock's ether fund made up about 98% of ether's.
Bitcoin traded near $82,400 early Friday afternoon, up about 1%.
Investor Signal
One reading is that holders are trimming ahead of CPI and a Fed that keeps pointing higher. The other is that a big September left room for a give-back, and one fund per asset suggests a few large sellers. Friday's flow data, due after the close, will show whether the price bounce drew money back. A ninth straight day of ether outflows, especially if it spreads beyond one fund, would test the second reading.
Oracle won back most of a bad day, and earlier in the week, lenders handed a self-driving unit more than it first sought. Investors marked down the carriers over a rival that has yet to build. Delta kept its customers and lost ground to fuel. A Fed hawk set a window, and household inflation fears moved toward it.
Money is still there for growth. Its price is still climbing.
3 Market Signals Most Investors Aren't Watching
The headline is usually the last place the story shows up.
By the time everyone is talking about a stock… the signals underneath it may have been changing for weeks.
• Institutional money moves.
• Options activity changes.
• Management confidence shifts.
• Fundamentals improve, or quietly begin telling a different story.
That’s exactly what our analysts found in three stocks where the evidence stopped agreeing with itself.
And in all three cases, the story is still developing.