Brent eased to about $103 early Friday after the president ruled out a strike on Iran before Nov 3, 2026. The supply picture underneath depends on which count of tanker traffic is right, and a hurricane has shut in about 63% of Gulf of Mexico oil output.
Two very different descriptions of the Strait of Hormuz are now circulating, and the oil price sits between them.
Brent crude traded at $102.93 a barrel at about 5:20 a.m. Eastern on Friday, down 1.3% from Thursday's $104.28. U.S. crude was at $90.52, down 1.1%. On Thursday morning, before President Trump posted that the United States would not attack Iran ahead of the midterm elections, Brent had reached $105.91.
The official count
In that same post, the president wrote that oil was moving through the strait "in Record Numbers of Barrels," and put the figure at "22 Million Barrels, last night alone, with not one barrel coming from, or going to, Iran!" U.S. Central Command had earlier described traffic through the waterway as including "20 million barrels of crude oil," without saying over what period.
The tracked count
Commercial ship-tracking data describe a thinner flow. Crude volumes through Hormuz are down about 27%, and only seven commodity vessels made the passage on Oct 6, 2026, the fewest since Jul 23, 2026. A separate estimate puts the oil that left through the strait in the week to Tuesday at about 9.5 million barrels a day, roughly 30% below prewar levels. Tankers that switch off their transponders do not show up in these counts, so the tracked figures are a floor rather than a ceiling.
The two sets of numbers measure different things. One is a single night's total and the other a daily average, so they cannot be lined up exactly. Still, the president's one-night figure is more than twice the tracked daily average for the week.
Sanctions and shut-ins
Two other developments landed on Thursday. The Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control designated 17 more vessels and said the action "effectively neutralizes the vast majority of Iran's remaining shadow fleet network." It also removed two vessels from its list.
In the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Isaias strengthened to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds late Thursday, and forecasters said it could briefly become a major hurricane before landfall late Friday or early Saturday. A hurricane warning stretches from Ocean Springs, Miss., into the Florida Panhandle. Federal offshore regulators said about 63% of Gulf oil production, nearly 1.3 million barrels a day, and about 57% of natural gas output had been shut in, with 121 of 371 manned platforms evacuated. On Wednesday the oil figure had been about 25%.
Natural gas futures fell about 1.2% overnight despite the gas shut-ins. Heating oil, the benchmark for diesel, was down about 1.8% in early trading.
The region
Attacks continued across the region. Saudi Arabia's aviation authority said three people were killed in attacks on the Riyadh airport, which Yemen's Houthis have claimed. Tehran's reply to the latest U.S. proposals is due "within the next few days," according to Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
On Polymarket, a contract that pays out if the U.S. blockade ends by Oct 31, 2026 traded at 19.5 cents early Friday, a cent lower than on Thursday afternoon. The president's post said the blockade "will remain in full force and effect."
Two readings
One reading is that the remaining premium is physical. Tracked crude flows are well below normal, attacks on shipping have not stopped, nearly two-thirds of Gulf of Mexico output is offline, and Brent is still about 2.7% above Wednesday's settlement.
A second reading is that the premium is shrinking. The nearest escalation window has been closed by the president's own statement, the government says its sanctions have largely shut the shadow fleet, official figures describe near-normal traffic, and offshore platforms usually restart within days of a storm passing once they are inspected.
What settles it
For the storm, the markers are Isaias' path over the weekend and how quickly platforms restart; the Energy Information Administration's Oct 15, 2026 weekly report will carry the first official output data after landfall. For the diplomacy, the marker is Iran's answer. Any independent tanker count that approaches the official figures would narrow the gap between the two descriptions; continued readings near 9.5 million barrels a day would not.