OpenAI told investors its September run rate was almost $50 billion. A figure near $70 billion had circulated, and Oracle lost about $23 billion in value. Broadcom is arranging more than $50 billion of financing for its OpenAI chip, and Firmus pulled its IPO to seek private money.
AI Stocks Slid Further After a Revenue Report. Most of the Market Held Up.
The S&P 500 fell 0.46% Thursday to about 7,765, and the Nasdaq lost 1.25%.
The chip index fell about 3.4% while an equal-weighted S&P 500 fund edged higher. Chips were already down when a report put OpenAI's revenue pace about $20 billion short of figures reported earlier. The selling deepened after it.
The 10-year yield ended near 5.23%, down about 5 basis points. Brent kept most of its jump after President Trump ruled out a strike on Iran before the midterms. Bitcoin dipped below $81,000 for the first time since Sept. 21.
Early Friday, Nasdaq-100 futures were up about 0.9%.
Investor Signal
Lenders are arranging chip debt against what AI customers will spend. Thursday, one of the largest customer's revenue figure came in below the one that had circulated. Chip stocks fell further within hours while most stocks held up, which points to a revenue question more than a rate scare. Whether the early bounce in futures holds through the open will show how much of Thursday was positioning.
Lately Every Top Stock List Has Started Looking the Same.
Nothing wrong with Nvidia, Tesla, or SpaceX — but we believe there are plenty of other top-quality opportunities for investors willing to dig into the details.
That's why our MarketBeat analysts built an all-new list of the 5 Best Stocks to Buy Now.
Every company on the list:
- Worth at least $5 billion
- Strong fundamentals
- Strong growth prospects ahead
You'll get the full bull case — and the full bear case — for each stock. Every opportunity, every risk, every factor we considered. So you can invest with confidence.
The report is called 5 Stocks to Buy Now — and it's yours free today.
OpenAI Told Investors About $50 Billion. Oracle Lost About $23 Billion in Value.
OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue for September was almost $50 billion, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Reuters and others had reported that OpenAI pointed investors to nearly $70 billion for the same month. Other reports say investors built that figure to match Anthropic's method, which counts sales through cloud partners. OpenAI declined to comment.
Oracle (ORCL) broke lower soon after the report spread. It closed down 5.6%, a loss of about $23 billion in value. CoreWeave (CRWV) fell 7.8%, though about 60% of that drop came before the report. Broadcom (AVGO) lost 4.4% and Nvidia (NVDA) 2.9%.
CoreWeave's filings show OpenAI contracts worth up to about $22.4 billion. That is roughly half its market value, and the contracts can be terminated.
Investor Signal
One reading is that accounting explains most of the gap. An account of OpenAI's investor presentation cited 77% run-rate growth in the third quarter, which supports it. The other reading is about concentration, since one customer's figure moved Oracle within the hour. Oracle's next quarterly report could show how much of its backlog depends on OpenAI.
Lenders Are in Talks to Finance OpenAI’s Chips. Public Buyers Balked at an AI Landlord.
Broadcom is working to arrange more than $50 billion of financing tied to the custom chip it is building for OpenAI. People familiar with the talks told the Wall Street Journal before Thursday's open. It has approached Apollo and Blackstone.
Oracle is in talks with Apollo (APO) and Goldman Sachs (GS) on a vehicle that would buy chips and lease them to Oracle. The debt would sit off Oracle's balance sheet, but the lease payments would still be owed.
Thursday, Firmus, an Nvidia-backed Australian data-center operator, closed its IPO book without setting a price. Overnight, it withdrew the listing. Firmus said it "will now pursue capital from the private markets."
Investor Signal
Both chip financings are repaid from what AI customers spend. Private lenders sit at the center of both, and Firmus now plans to raise money privately after the public book stalled. Signed terms will show what lenders charge after Thursday's revenue figure. Wider spreads would mean credit is pricing the same question stocks did.
Your First 100%+ Upside Idea, Delivered Today
Join Street Sheet Research today and your first idea with 100%+ upside potential hits your inbox right after you sign up. It comes from a top-ranked Wall Street analyst, with the full thesis included.
After that, you'll get a new 100%+ idea every month and three 30%+ ideas every Saturday.
Your first year is $99 (normally $199), and it's backed by a 90-day money-back guarantee.
Sponsored by The Street Sheet. Upside potential reflects analyst price targets, which are estimates and may not be realized. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Not personalized investment advice. Membership renews at the then-current list price after year one unless canceled.
The 30-Year Sold at Its Highest Auction Yield Since 2000. Long Yields Fell Anyway.
The Treasury sold $22 billion of 30-year bonds Thursday at 5.618%. That was the highest yield for a 30-year sale since August 2000. September's sale cleared at 5.308%.
Bids came to 2.54 times the amount on offer, below September's 2.61. Dealers were left with 6.8%.
The 30-year rose to about 5.70% that morning, just below Wednesday's 24-year high, and ended near 5.61%. The president's 12:17 p.m. Iran post, the 1 p.m. sale and the AI selloff all landed within an hour, so the move can't be pinned on one.
Fed minutes released Wednesday said a few officials listed expected AI borrowing among possible reasons long yields have risen.
Investor Signal
The 10- and 30-year sales both cleared without leaning on dealers, so buyers exist at these levels. A few Fed officials see AI borrowing as a possible source of long-end pressure, and Thursday's revenue figure put that borrowing in question. A slower pace of chip financing would ease that pressure, though no deal has been cut back. September inflation data on Oct. 14 is the next test.
SpaceX Agreed to Buy T-Mobile's Old Airwaves. The Three Carriers Fell 6% to 8% Before the Open.
SpaceX (SPCX) agreed after Thursday's close to buy Grain Management's nationwide 800 MHz spectrum. Grain bought it from T-Mobile in August for $2.9 billion in cash plus its own 600 MHz licenses.
No price was disclosed. People familiar with the deal put it near $8 billion in cash, the Wall Street Journal reported. It needs FCC approval.
In thin premarket trading at about 5:20 a.m., AT&T (T) was down 7.4%, Verizon (VZ) 6.8% and T-Mobile (TMUS) 6.9%. Together they were worth about $38.5 billion less than at Thursday's close.
Without a network, "it's just empty airwaves," a Verizon spokesman said.
Investor Signal
The carriers' early loss is more than five times the reported price. The size of the drop suggests investors are weighing a fourth national network, one for which SpaceX has disclosed no rollout plan or pricing. The deal also lands as SpaceX seeks $40 billion of debt and loans for Nvidia chips, after the cost of insuring its debt hit a record Wednesday.
FREE Gold Ticker to Buy ASAP: (NYSE:___)
Jim Rickards – the world’s #1 gold expert – has just revealed one of his favorite gold plays… 100% FREE
As Jim sees it, we’re witnessing the biggest gold boom of the last 100 years – and those who keep their money on the sidelines are missing their chance at a fortune thanks to gold’s epic run.
But smart investors who get in now, could make 10X their money in the coming months.
Datafolha Shows a Four-Point Brazil Race. Contracts Price Flávio Bolsonaro Near 87%.
Datafolha's first runoff poll gave Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro 52% of valid votes to 48% for President Lula.
Kalshi prices Flávio at about 87 cents to win the Oct. 25 runoff, and Polymarket at 86.4 cents.
Datafolha's last survey before the first round had Lula ahead 45% to 42%. The count gave Flávio 47.03% and Lula 45.16%.
Investor Signal
An 87-cent price is a probability, and a steady lead of a few points can justify it if the polls are right. The same pollster missed the first-round margin by about five points. That is more than the current four-point lead. AtlasIntel and Ipespe runoff polls, due within two days, will test whether the price rests on polls.
Lenders went into Thursday arranging chip financing against what AI customers will spend. By afternoon, one of the largest customer's revenue figure came in below the one that had circulated, and Oracle repriced within the hour. Overnight, an AI landlord turned from public buyers to private capital.
The debt is still being arranged. The revenue it depends on is now being checked.
3 Stocks at a Major Turning Point
Something unusual is happening beneath the surface of three widely followed stocks.
In each case, the fundamentals are saying one thing... while institutional activity, management signals or the options market are saying something else.
That kind of disagreement can matter.
Because when the evidence stops lining up, the next move in the story often comes down to a handful of signals most investors never think to watch.
Our new FREE Market Tell Special Report breaks down three of these situations, and shows you exactly what we’re watching next.