Oil Tests $100 | Gas Prices Hold the Risk | The Ten-Year Waits Below Five | The Cut Book Closes

Friday opens with a second relief bid and a narrower escape route.

Dow futures rose about 55 points. S&P 500 futures gained 0.2%. Nasdaq-100 futures added 0.4% after Thursday’s rebound from the Fed selloff. Asia helped the tone. Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.38%. South Korea’s Kospi gained 2.66%. China’s CSI 300 advanced 1.06%.

Oil kept easing. Brent traded near $103.83. WTI traded near $101.01 and later tested the $100 line. The 10-year sat near 4.95%, below the five handle that had pressured equities earlier in the week.

That is the calmer screen.

The harder tape is still there.

For the week, the Dow remains down 1.5%. The S&P is down 0.3%. The Nasdaq is up only 0.3%. The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points to 1.25%, its highest level since 1995.

Prediction markets did not treat the oil pullback as a full release. Kalshi prices U.S. gas above $4.48 this week at 91¢ and above $4.50 at 61¢. The market is buying lower crude. Prediction markets are still watching the pump.

The lead signal is not oil falling. It is gasoline refusing to leave the story.

WTI briefly traded below $100 after Saudi Arabia found alternate ways to move crude to Asian buyers through Oman. Brent fell toward $102.57, and the third day of declines removed part of the war premium.

That helped futures.

It did not erase the consumer channel.

Kalshi prices a 91% chance that the national gasoline average stays above $4.48 this week. The market also prices a 61% chance it stays above $4.50, and a 24% chance it clears $4.52. That is the gap between crude and the household. Oil can fall on better logistics. Gasoline can stay firm if the earlier spike is still passing through stations, freight and expectations.

The same gap matters for the Fed.

A lower barrel helps the screen. A higher pump keeps inflation visible. After a hike, visible inflation matters because it shapes what the Fed can say next.

The Pump After the Barrel

Crude can cool first. Gas prices decide when households feel it.

The Fed path stayed tighter than the rebound looked.

The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points this week to 3.75% to 4.00%. That was the event. The path is now the trade.

Polymarket prices two total Fed hikes in 2026 at 59%. Three hikes sit at 19.9%. One hike sits at 16%. Four hikes are 1.6%. Kalshi’s cut book is even clearer. Exactly zero cuts in 2026 trades at 95.7¢. One cut sits at 4.4¢. Two cuts sit at 0.6¢.

That means the market is not pricing relief from the Fed.

It is pricing either more tightening or no reversal.

The 10-year book supports the same view. A 5.1% touch before 2027 sits at 74%. A 5.2% touch sits at 33%. A 5.5% touch sits at 8%. The long end slipped below five, but the next rung remains live.

The Closed Cut Door

A rebound can price softer conditions. The cuts book does not.

The global rate story widened while U.S. yields cooled.

The Bank of Japan hiked by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest since 1995. That matters because the Fed’s renewed tightening cycle is not staying local. Higher U.S. rates support the dollar, raise the local cost of dollar-priced fuel, and limit how much other central banks can ease.

That pressure now meets oil.

Saudi Arabia’s workaround gave crude a break. It is moving more supply through Oman after the East-West pipeline was hit. But Saudi Arabia and the Houthis exchanged fresh attacks across the border. Traders are still watching Hormuz, export terminals and the pipeline repair timeline.

So the market has two moving parts.

A logistics fix lowered the price. A regional conflict kept the risk.

That is why the long end did not break lower. It eased, but it stayed close to five. The Fed, oil and global central banks are still connected by the same funding cost.

The Global Carry

Oil sets the pressure. Rates spread it across currencies and credit.

Prediction markets are useful today because they separate price relief from path relief.

The crude market gives one signal. WTI near $100 says the supply scare eased. The gas market gives another. Above $4.50 this week at 61¢ says the consumer effect has not cleared.

The Fed path gives the third. Two hikes in 2026 at 59% and zero cuts at 96% show that traders are not pricing a quick turn back to easier policy.

The policy books add a different clock.

The Clarity Act signed in 2026 sits at 8%. A U.S. AI safety bill before 2027 sits at 11%. Both are low, but they still matter because policy has already moved markets this week. CLARITY failed and crypto sold off. AI safety talk hit chips before the broader market recovered.

The AI model books remain concentrated. Anthropic sits at 97.8% for the best model at the end of September. OpenAI is 1.1%. Google and Meta are below 1%. By January, Anthropic falls to 72%, OpenAI rises to 13%, Google is 10%, and xAI is 2.9%.

The Split Signal

Spot prices show relief. Path contracts show what still has to clear.

Friday begins with the same question Thursday left open.

Stocks are trying to extend the rebound. Oil is closer to $100. The 10-year sits below five. But gas-price markets still show pressure, and Fed-path markets still show no room for cuts.

What is priced: a 91% chance gas stays above $4.48, a 61% chance gas stays above $4.50, two Fed hikes in 2026 at 59%, zero cuts at 95.7%, and a 74% chance the 10-year touches 5.1%.

What is not priced: Saudi logistics failing again, Houthi and Saudi attacks widening, the 10-year moving back above five, or gasoline keeping the Fed path tight after crude falls.

The rebound has a cleaner screen.

The path still has a hard price.

Capital moves early. Coverage catches up. The gap between the two is worth watching.