A Polymarket contract on which company ends the year as the largest by market value has priced Nvidia comfortably ahead of Apple for weeks, and it barely budged even as Nvidia’s own shares slid into a chip-sector selloff, one day before its most closely watched earnings report of the year.
Nvidia shares fell 2.91% Tuesday, part of a broader, multi-day slide across chip stocks. The company’s market capitalization stood at $5.050 trillion. Apple rose slightly to $4.558 trillion, narrowing the gap between the two to roughly $492 billion from about $667 billion four days earlier.
Polymarket’s contract on which company will be the largest by market capitalization at year-end priced Nvidia at 73% and Apple at 13.7% Tuesday, essentially the same reading as a week earlier, before the chip selloff began. Alphabet sat at 10%.
A contract resolving four months out treats one day’s stock move as a small input. Nvidia reports second-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings Wednesday, one of the season’s most closely watched prints given the stock’s size and its role in the broader AI-capital-expenditure story. A strong report would not, on its own, need to move a contract that already prices Nvidia at 73%; a weak one, layered on a selloff already underway, is a different matter.
Tuesday’s decline was not enough to disturb a market still assigning Nvidia a wide year-end lead over Apple.