The contract shifts modestly toward tightening as trading volume exceeds $39 million ahead of inflation data.
A contract on Kalshi tied directly to the Federal Reserve's rate decision showed the odds of a quarter-point hike at 53% this week, up from 51% a few days earlier, with the odds of the Fed holding rates steady at 46%, down from 49%. A separate outcome, a hike larger than a quarter point, held steady at just 1%. Trading volume on the contract has grown steadily, reaching more than $39 million, up from roughly $38.4 million the prior week.
The move is modest, but it puts a quarter-point increase slightly ahead of an unchanged-rate outcome in this contract. It follows Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks and the stronger-than-expected August payroll report. These prices reflect trading in a specific event contract, not an official Fed forecast.
Inflation could move the odds
Friday’s consumer price index is the next major release for traders to assess before the Fed decision. Contract prices may change as participants update their views, and the reported odds should be treated as a snapshot rather than a settled prediction.