The prediction-market leader is finalizing a raise at about $40 billion that is expected to be its final step before an initial public offering, possibly as soon as next year.
Kalshi is close to setting the price at which the public markets will first be asked to value it.
The company is finalizing a financing round that would value it at about $40 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. The deal is expected to be Kalshi's last private raise before an initial public offering, which is anticipated as soon as next year. Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management are in talks to lead the round, and Tiger Global and Dragoneer may also participate. Kalshi and Sequoia declined to comment. The round has not closed.
The numbers behind the price
The financial detail is what makes this round different from earlier ones. Kalshi's gross margins run at about 90%, and its annualized revenue run rate reached about $4 billion as of August, according to people familiar with the company's finances.
Those two figures make the valuation easy to frame. At $40 billion, investors would be paying about 10 times run-rate revenue for a business that keeps roughly 90 cents of every dollar after direct costs. The price is up about 82% from the $22 billion valuation set in Kalshi's $1 billion Series F, which closed in May.
The duopoly gap
Kalshi's main rival is also raising. Polymarket is finalizing a round of about $1 billion at a valuation of roughly $21 billion, led by 1789 Capital, which is putting in about $300 million on top of an earlier stake of around $200 million. Intercontinental Exchange, which committed $2.6 billion, is Polymarket's largest shareholder.
That leaves Kalshi valued at about 1.9 times its competitor. Trading volume explains much of the gap. Prediction markets handled a record $20.4 billion in the week of to , the first week above $20 billion, and Kalshi accounted for about $15.8 billion, or roughly 77%.
The legal overhang
The valuation lands during an unsettled stretch for the industry's legal footing. Kalshi lost a case at the Sixth Circuit on , three petitions are pending at the Supreme Court and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has sent new event-contract rules to the White House for review. A pre-IPO price of $40 billion implicitly assumes those questions resolve in a way that preserves Kalshi's federal regulatory model against state gambling laws.
What to watch
The first marker is an announced close and any statement from Kalshi confirming terms. After that, the hiring of underwriters or a confidential IPO filing would show how quickly the company intends to move. The end of Kalshi's volume incentive program, expected no earlier than , will offer a test of whether trading activity holds without the subsidy.