A filing with the CFTC ends the Volume Incentive Program no earlier than Oct. 13, instead of Oct. 1, 2027, and gives no reason. A House committee has widened its inquiry into prediction-market trading.
Kalshi is about to stop paying traders for volume, in the busiest month it has ever had.
In a filing with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission dated Sept. 28, the exchange said it will terminate its Volume Incentive Program no earlier than Oct. 13, 2026. The program had been scheduled to run until Oct. 1, 2027, so the change cuts it short by nearly a year. The filing does not give a reason.
Kalshi's September trading volume reached $52.98 billion through Sept. 29, a record for the exchange with a day still to go.
The questions around it
Critics have tied the program to allegations of wash trading, meaning trades made mainly to generate volume or rewards. Kalshi has denied the allegations, and its filing does not link the decision to them.
Separately, Kalshi is in talks to raise about $1 billion at a valuation near $40 billion, a deal the company has not confirmed.
Congress
Oversight of the industry is widening. On Sept. 29, House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer sent letters to Hyperliquid Labs, Crypto.com and Aristotle Exchange, which operates PredictIt, as part of the committee's investigation into insider trading on prediction market platforms.
Two readings
One reading is that Kalshi no longer needs to pay for volume. At more than $50 billion a month, organic activity may be large enough that incentives have become an unnecessary cost.
The other reading is that some of the record volume was driven by the incentives themselves. On that view, the first weeks after Oct. 13 will show how much activity was paid for, and a drop would feed the questions the program has already drawn.
What to watch
October volume, and especially the weeks after Oct. 13, is the direct test. Confirmation of the funding round and its valuation would be the next marker, along with responses to the House letters.