Brazil's most-watched pollster showed the race tighter than a week ago. The prediction-market price on a Flávio win rose about 2.6 cents between 5 p.m. and 7 p.m. Eastern, around the release, the reverse of what the poll alone would suggest.
Brazil's polls and its prediction markets have spent the past week moving in opposite directions. On Thursday evening they swapped roles.
In Datafolha's latest round, Flávio drew 47% to 45% for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Counting only valid votes, Flávio leads 51% to 49%, narrower than the 52-48 lead the same pollster showed on Oct. 8. The survey of 2,520 people, conducted face to face, has a margin of error of two points. It was released at about 5:30 p.m. Eastern.
In seven days, the margin between them has halved.
The details
Rejection is close for both. Forty-six percent of voters say they would never vote for Lula, unchanged, while 44% say the same of Flávio, up from 43%. Approval of Lula's government stands at 48% against 50% disapproval. In the populous Southeast, Flávio leads 51% to 41%. Ninety-three percent of voters say their choice is settled.
The price
Half an hour before the release, the Flávio contract on Polymarket stood at 76.85 cents. By 7 p.m., 90 minutes after it, the price was 79.45 cents, and at 8 p.m. it was 79.55. It sat near 79.25 through the early hours and slipped back to 78.1 by 4:46 a.m. Friday.
That is 1.25 cents above its level in Thursday's early afternoon, when, after a string of three narrow polls, it had fallen nearly 6 cents over the day. Converted to odds, 78.1 cents works out to roughly 3.6-to-1 on Flávio, by this publication's arithmetic.
Why a tighter poll might lift the price
There is no direct evidence that the poll caused the rise. But two readings fit the timing. Flávio remains numerically ahead in the highest-profile survey of the week, and some traders may have feared a Datafolha result showing Lula in front. When that did not happen, the downside scenario they were hedging receded, even though the race tightened.
The scenario that would have tested the 75-cent level, Datafolha putting Lula in front, did not materialize, and the price never approached it.
Market implications
Traders who are comfortable at these levels can point to structure the headline numbers miss. A candidate who leads in every major survey, with high voter certainty and a commanding lead in the largest region, may be a stronger favorite than a two-point margin suggests.
Skeptics see a market and a polling consensus that have simply come apart. A race within the margin of error in multiple surveys is close to even, and a price implying better than 3-to-1 odds leaves room for a sharp repricing if a debate or a late poll moves voters.
What to watch
Sunday's televised debate on Band at 8 p.m. Brasília time, an AtlasIntel survey of 5,000 people on Monday, the Globo debate on Oct. 23 and the Oct. 25 runoff. The price has yet to face a major survey with Lula in the lead; the first one will show how much conviction sits behind it.