Traders see a shrinking chance that the federal crypto market-structure bill becomes law this year.
Prediction markets are pricing a declining chance that the CLARITY Act, the pending federal digital asset market structure bill, becomes law this year, with odds now down to around 24% as Senate cloture faces a steep 60 vote threshold.
Congress or the courts
The bill's fate matters beyond crypto markets narrowly. Its central question, whether digital asset and event contracts fall under federal or state regulatory authority, is the same question at the heart of an ongoing circuit court split over prediction markets jurisdiction. A federal legislative resolution could reshape or moot that litigation entirely. Continued stalling leaves the matter to the courts by default.
September is a decisive window for the bill's prospects, with three weeks remaining to change its trajectory. For investors in crypto-adjacent and prediction-market-adjacent businesses, the practical read is that federal clarity on market structure is not imminent, leaving the jurisdictional question to keep playing out case by case in federal courts rather than being settled by statute.