An interim rule on casino-style products and a proposal on event contracts joined a crypto-market framework in review, as Supreme Court deadlines approach.
The rules that could decide the legal future of prediction markets are now in the White House's hands, though their contents remain under wraps.
Three Commodity Futures Trading Commission actions are pending review at the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, the arm of the White House budget office that clears major regulations. Two bear directly on event contracts.
What is in the queue
The first is an interim final rule excluding casino-style products, received for review on . The second is a proposed rule that would include event contracts within the definition of a swap. The third, received , is titled "Regulation Crypto Asset Transactions and Regulation Crypto Asset Markets."
None of the three texts has been published. The titles alone, however, sketch a strategy.
Reading the titles
Placing event contracts inside the swap definition would anchor them firmly in federal derivatives law, the ground on which Kalshi and other platforms have argued that state gambling regulators lack authority over them. Excluding casino-style products would draw a line between financial event contracts and offerings that look more like sports betting or games of chance.
The format of the first rule matters as much as its subject. An interim final rule can take effect before the public comment process is complete, while a proposed rule must go through comment before it becomes binding. The CFTC appears to be moving faster on narrowing the field than on expanding it.
The courts are moving too
The regulatory push coincides with a crowded legal calendar. Kalshi lost at the Sixth Circuit on . Responses are due at the Supreme Court on and in two pending cases, and on in a third. A finalized federal rule placing event contracts under the swap regime could shape how courts weigh the competing state and federal claims.
The stakes for valuations
The timing is not lost on investors. Kalshi is finalizing a round that would value it at about $40 billion, and Polymarket at about $21 billion. Both prices rest on the assumption that federal oversight, not a patchwork of state gambling regimes, will govern the industry. The rules at the White House are the most direct route to securing that assumption.
What to watch
The key event is publication in the Federal Register, which would reveal the rules' actual text. Until then, any interpretation rests on titles. The Supreme Court deadlines in mid-October and early November are the parallel track, and a CFTC rule finalized before the justices act would change the terrain they are ruling on.