Polymarket's contract on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire holding through Nov. 8 jumped 9 points to 81.5 cents overnight, with volume up about sixfold. The Nov. 15 contract rose only to 58.5 cents, leaving the market's risk concentrated in the days after the Nov. 3 vote.
Prediction markets moved the way oil did on the evening Vice President JD Vance's outreach to Iran was reported. The prices also show traders have not stopped worrying about the period right after the U.S. elections.
On Polymarket, the contract asking whether the U.S.-Iran ceasefire continues through Nov. 8 rose to 81.5 cents early Thursday, from 72.5 cents on Wednesday afternoon. It traded about $313,000 over 24 hours, roughly six times its volume the day before. The contract on the ceasefire holding through Nov. 15 rose to 58.5 cents from 52.5 cents. The Oct. 31 contract rose to 96.85 cents from 95.5 cents.
The contracts resolve to no if the United States carries out "an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran" before the deadline.
What moved them
Most of the move came between 7 p.m. and 11 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday. That evening, multiple outlets reported that Vance had written to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, about restarting negotiations, and President Trump said he had approved outreach about medical supplies, while denying that he had directed peace talks. The Nov. 8 contract has held at 81.5 cents since.
Oil's move was consistent with that reading. West Texas Intermediate fell about 1% overnight to near $101.60.
The shape of the risk
The contract prices, read together, tell a more specific story. At 96.85 cents for Oct. 31, traders see about a 3% chance of a U.S. strike in the next few days. At 81.5 cents for Nov. 8, they see about an 18.5% chance by then. At 58.5 cents for Nov. 15, about 41.5%.
That implies roughly a 23-point probability of a first strike in the week from Nov. 9 to Nov. 15 alone, larger than the risk priced for the next 10 days combined, by our arithmetic.
That shape matches a separate report from late Wednesday. Two diplomats told the Associated Press that U.S. officials had advised regional allies to prepare for potential renewed military action against Iran after next week's midterm elections, and that Trump had not made a final decision.
The Nov. 15 contract is less liquid, with about $69,000 of liquidity against about $190,000 for the Nov. 8 contract, so its price is a less precise guide.
Diplomacy priced, or danger deferred?
The diplomacy reading: a direct channel to Tehran's security establishment is open, the market added 9 points to the near-term contract on heavy volume, and oil fell alongside it.
The deferred-danger reading: traders raised the near-term odds but still price a large chance of strikes in the week after the elections, and the president's own description of the outreach was narrower than the reports.
What to watch
Any Iranian response to the Vance letter, Iran's answer to the Qatari mediation proposal expected by the end of the week, the Oct. 31 expiry, statements from Washington after the Nov. 3 elections, and the gap between the Nov. 8 and Nov. 15 contracts.