União Progressista pledged "unconditional" support and Novo endorsed him. Polymarket and Kalshi priced his chances near 84%, while the last Datafolha poll before the first round had him a point behind Lula.
The endorsements kept coming for Flávio Bolsonaro on Wednesday. The prediction markets that price his chances of winning Brazil's presidency edged the other way.
União Progressista, the bloc formed by the PP and União Brasil parties, pledged "apoio incondicional," or unconditional support, at an event in Brasília. Partido Novo formally endorsed him as well. Republicanos was expected to decide on Wednesday whether to join.
The contracts
Polymarket's contract on Bolsonaro winning the presidency moved from 84.95 cents to 84.75 cents over the day, implying a probability of about 85%. Kalshi's equivalent traded between 83 and 85 cents and last changed hands at 84 cents, down from 85. Kalshi has priced Bolsonaro about 0.5 to 1.5 points below Polymarket.
Neither contract rose on the endorsements. Both had climbed on Tuesday as earlier endorsements arrived, which suggests traders had already priced a consolidating center-right.
The polls
The contracts sit well above where the last published survey put the race. Datafolha's final poll before the first round put President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 47% and Bolsonaro at 46%. In the first round itself, Bolsonaro took 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%.
A market price near 84% implies traders see a much clearer path for Bolsonaro than a one-point poll margin would suggest. That gap will be tested this week. Datafolha and PoderData publish on Thursday, AtlasIntel on Friday and Ipespe on Saturday. The runoff is .
Brazilian assets
Brazil's markets gave back part of their election rally for the first time. The real weakened about 0.6% to about 5.00 per dollar, and the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF fell about 0.7%.
The case for and against
One reading is that the contracts reflect the arithmetic of the runoff. Bolsonaro led the first round, and the parties that backed other candidates are moving to him, which should add votes that a pre-first-round poll did not capture.
Another reading is that endorsements do not move voters one for one, and that a poll showing a one-point race leaves more uncertainty than an 84% price implies.
Thursday's polls
The first head-to-head polls since the first round are the next large input. A Bolsonaro lead outside the margin of error would bring the polls closer to the contracts. A tie or a Lula lead would put pressure on prices in the mid-80s.