Goiás political leaders were set to formalize their support on Tuesday, a day after former President Michel Temer endorsed him. Polymarket priced his chances near 84% and Kalshi near 86%, three weeks before the runoff.
Prediction Markets · FinancialMarkets.com · October 6, 2026 · Tickers: EWZ, ITUB, PBR, NU
The endorsements Flávio Bolsonaro needs for Brazil's presidential runoff started arriving on Tuesday. Prediction markets had largely priced them already.
Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD party and Goiás Governor Daniel Vilela of the MDB were set to formalize their support for Bolsonaro at an event in Goiânia at 2 p.m. local time, 1 p.m. Eastern. São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas was set to attend. On Monday, former President Michel Temer, also of the MDB, endorsed Bolsonaro.
The contracts
Polymarket's contract on Bolsonaro winning the presidency traded at 83.75 cents at 6 a.m. Eastern, rose to a peak of 84.75 cents at 10 a.m. and stood at 84.35 cents at 2:10 p.m. That implies a probability of about 84%, up about 1.9 points from Monday afternoon. Kalshi's equivalent contract traded between 86 and 87 cents in the early afternoon and last changed hands at 86 cents.
The movement was small next to the size of the news. A rise of under 2 points on a day of high-profile endorsements suggests traders had expected the center-right to consolidate after Sunday's first round.
The coalition
Not every figure the campaign has courted has picked a side. Cury and Renan Santos have stayed neutral. The PSD left its state branches free to decide for themselves. Bolsonaro's campaign has said it aims to complete its alliances by Thursday.
In the first round, Bolsonaro took 47.03% of valid votes and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 45.16%. Neither reached the 50% needed to win outright. The runoff is Oct. 25.
Markets in Brazil
Brazilian assets held their gains on the second day. The real strengthened about 0.35% to near 4.98 per dollar, after a rally of more than 4% on Monday. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF was little changed, up about 0.2%.
Two readings
One reading is that the endorsements confirm what the contracts implied: a first-round lead plus a consolidating center-right gives Bolsonaro a strong path to victory.
Another reading starts from history. In 2022, Flávio's father, Jair Bolsonaro, also outperformed expectations in the first round, and Lula won the runoff. Endorsements are not votes, and head-to-head runoff polling is still to come.
First runoff polls
The first head-to-head poll since the first round is the next large input. A contract that holds above 80 cents after it would suggest traders see the first-round result as decisive. A move back toward the low 70s would suggest the 2022 precedent is being priced.