AtlasIntel's survey of 5,026 voters shows Flávio with 52.8% of valid votes to Lula's 47.2%, a reversal from its pre-first-round simulation. Kalshi traded up to 88 cents and Polymarket to about 87 cents as Brazilian assets rallied.
October 9, 2026
Tickers: EWZ, BRL, PBR, ITUB, VALE
Three polls since Brazil's first round have now shown the same leader. The prices on the outcome have barely moved.
AtlasIntel published a runoff survey on Friday showing Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party with 52.8% of valid votes, which exclude blank and spoiled ballots, against 47.2% for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Counting all respondents, the split was 51.1% to 45.7%, with 3.2% blank, spoiled or undecided. The poll interviewed 5,026 people from Oct. 3 to Oct. 8 through random digital recruitment and has a margin of error of one percentage point.
A reversal from the pollster's last look
AtlasIntel's final simulation before the Oct. 4 first round had Lula narrowly ahead in a runoff, 50.1% to 49.9%. The new survey uses a different field period, so the comparison is directional, but it moves the race from a tie to a 5.6-point lead.
It follows PoderData, which showed 53% to 47%, and Datafolha, which showed 52% to 48%. One survey points the other way: a Vox Brasil simulation published Friday had Lula at 44.2% and Flávio at 42.7% of total votes.
AtlasIntel also asked which candidate voters trust more on specific issues. The two were effectively tied on poverty, unemployment and inequality and on environmental protection. Flávio led on crime and drug trafficking, at 53%, and fiscal balance, at 52%, by about 10 points in each.
Endorsements
Augusto Cury, who finished third in the first round with 2.89% of valid votes, about 3.45 million, endorsed Flávio on Thursday. Cury said he would not join a Flávio government and attached eight policy commitments to his support, including an end to presidential reelection. The Podemos party also endorsed Flávio. Lula resumed campaign events on Friday.
The contracts
On Polymarket, the contract on a Flávio win rose from 86.4 cents early Friday to about 87.05 cents by early afternoon, after touching 87.15 cents. Kalshi's contract traded between 87 and 89 cents and last printed at 88 cents, up from 87. Its largest trade of the day, about 5,000 contracts, crossed at 89 cents at 7:41 a.m. Eastern, about an hour after the AtlasIntel results were published.
A contract price is not a vote share. At 87 to 88 cents, traders are assigning Flávio roughly a seven-in-eight chance of winning, based on a lead of about five points in valid votes.
Markets
Brazilian assets rose. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF gained about 2.2% to $43.54, and the real strengthened about 0.6% to 4.99 per dollar.
Two readings
One reading is that the contracts are, if anything, lagging. Three polls by different methods agree, the endorsement map favors Flávio, and an AtlasIntel margin of error of one point puts his lead well outside statistical noise.
Another reading is that the polls have been wrong before this cycle. The first-round count was about five points better for Flávio than Datafolha's final survey, one current poll still has Lula ahead, and 16 days of campaigning remain.
What comes next
Ipespe's survey is due this weekend, and the first televised runoff debate is expected Sunday. The vote is Oct. 25. A poll that narrows the margin to two or three points would test how firmly traders hold the high-80s price.