The Dow jumped more than 600 points after Fed Governor Christopher Waller opened the door to a September hold, cutting hike odds to about 50%. Brent still held above $95 as Iran struck U.S. Gulf allies. Nvidia agreed to buy Hugging Face for $12.93 billion, while Bitcoin broke above $81,000 as crypto risk appetite returned.
Risk assets finally got help from the Fed.
The move came after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support holding rates steady if inflation continues to cool. September hike odds fell to 50.4% from 63.2% a day earlier.
Treasury yields followed. The 10-year fell to 4.748%, the 30-year to 5.233%, and the 2-year to 4.332%.
That was enough to revive risk appetite even with oil still high. Snowflake (SNOW) gained more than 21%, Tesla rose ahead of its Cybercab event, and Bitcoin pushed above $81,000.
The Signal
Waller gave the market a lower discount rate for one day. Oil is still deciding whether that relief lasts.
I've Read a Lot of Mining Filings. They All Sound the Same.
This one stopped me cold.
Sitting in the filings of one small American gold company is a phrase I have never seen on a gold project: substantial support and partnership from the Department of War.
The Department of War does not partner with gold miners. Except it's partnering with this one.
Here's why. The deposit carries a second metal — one China formally banned from export to the United States. The only domestic reserve of it in the country.
Gold for the dollar war. The banned metal for the shooting war. Both from the same pit.
Washington didn't stop at words. On May 21, 2026, a federal bank voted unanimously to lend nearly $3 billion to build it. Congress got 25 days notice. Nobody objected.
When final papers are signed, funding risk goes to zero — and Wall Street re-rates the stock from speculative developer to federally backed strategic asset.
The company is about one fiftieth the size of Newmont.
The Gulf is still moving in the wrong direction.
Brent traded near $96.20 after topping $97 earlier, while WTI reached $91.86. Both are up more than 7% this week.
Kuwait said its air defenses intercepted Iranian missiles and drones as Tehran continued attacks against U.S. Gulf allies. That adds another front to the latest round of strikes.
At the same time, Hormuz flows are improving. More than 17 million barrels moved through the Strait Monday under U.S. protection, compared with about 20 million per day before the war.
Washington says that proves Iran is losing control of the route.
The economic pressure on Tehran is also building. Iranian crude loadings have fallen to about 260,000 barrels per day from roughly 1.7 million a year ago. Trade is down 25% to 35%, the rial has fallen beyond 2.2 million per dollar, and inflation has reached 69.9%.
Energy Signal
Hormuz is flowing better, but Iran is under more pressure and striking more targets. The supply risk is improving while the military risk worsens.
Waller changed the September conversation without ending it.
He said inflation remains meaningfully above the Fed’s 2% goal, but recent data shows signs of disinflation. If that continues, he would support holding rates steady.
That pulled yields lower after a sharp global bond selloff.
The bigger problem has not disappeared. Germany’s 10-year yield remains near its highest since 2011. Japan’s sits above 3%. U.K. yields remain near post-2008 highs.
Debt is part of the story.
U.S. federal debt has now topped $40 trillion. Higher yields mean the government must refinance that debt at higher costs, while AI investment is competing with public borrowing for the same capital.
ISM services also came in strong at 55.4 versus 54.1 expected.
Macro Signal
Waller gave the Fed room to pause. Strong services, high oil and heavy debt still make lower rates hard to justify.
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Nvidia is buying deeper into the AI stack.
Nvidia (NVDA) agreed to acquire Hugging Face for $12.93 billion. The deal gives Nvidia access to one of the largest open-source AI developer platforms in the market.
The strategy is clear.
Meta, OpenAI and Microsoft are all building more of their own chips. By owning Hugging Face, Nvidia gains influence over the software and developer layer even if customers use different models or hardware.
Hugging Face was valued at just $4.5 billion in 2023.
That makes the deal less about buying software revenue and more about protecting Nvidia’s place in the AI ecosystem.
Capital Signal
Nvidia already dominates AI hardware. Hugging Face gives it a stronger position where developers choose what gets built next.
Crypto rallied with stocks as the Fed risk eased.
Bitcoin broke above $81,000 and traded near $81,460, up about 5.4%. Total crypto market value climbed toward $2.82 trillion, its highest in more than seven months.
Zcash jumped 16.5%. Cardano gained 13%, while Dogecoin and XRP rose about 10%. Strategy (MSTR) and Circle gained roughly 15%, while Coinbase rose about 10%.
About $100 million of ETF inflows and stronger OTC demand helped push Bitcoin through $80,000.
The Fed still caps conviction. Markets are almost split on September, with a 50.4% chance of a hike and 49.6% chance of no move.
Bitcoin treasury companies are still concentrating around BTC. Japan-listed Remixpoint sold all of its Ethereum, Solana, XRP and Dogecoin and kept about 1,506 BTC as its only crypto holding.
Regulation remains another support. SEC Chair Paul Atkins said he expects the CLARITY Act vote on September 15 and believes the bill could reach Trump’s desk this month.
The Verdict
Bitcoin broke higher because rate risk eased. Corporate treasuries are still choosing BTC, and regulation is moving forward. The question is whether Friday’s jobs report keeps the macro door open.
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Elon Musk could take SpaceX public in 2026, at an estimated $1.75 trillion valuation. The IPO would include Elon's AI model, Grok. But according to Louis Navellier, a radical new AI model will launch this year… over 1,000 times more powerful than Elon's. And the company behind it could outperform SpaceX in the process.
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Thursday’s rally came from one change.
The Fed looked less certain to hike.
That lowered yields, lifted stocks and gave Bitcoin enough room to clear $81,000.
But the rest of the setup is still tight. Brent remains above $95. Iran is still striking U.S. allies. Global yields remain near multi-year highs. U.S. debt is above $40 trillion.
Nvidia’s $12.93 billion Hugging Face deal shows AI capital is still expanding even in that environment.
Crypto is doing the same. Bitcoin broke out, altcoins rallied, and corporate treasuries kept moving toward BTC.
Friday’s payrolls now decide whether Waller’s hold case survives.
If jobs weaken, the Fed gets room to wait.
If jobs stay firm, oil and inflation take control again.